Analytics
“538 favorite when forecast is turned on?” is a politics prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Aug 31, 2024. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 28 hourly price points from Jul 27, 2024 to Aug 23, 2024 (Yes between 34.0% and 94.0%); 7 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 100.0% of the loaded shares; 500 recent public fills from 237 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
If Kamala Harris has a higher probability of winning than Donald Trump when the 538 forecast is turned back on, this market will resolve to "Kamala". If Donald Trump has a higher probability of winning than Kamala Harris, this market will resolve to "Trump". If Kamala Harris and Trump have equal odds, this market will resolve 50-50. If the forecast is not turned on by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to 50-50. If at any point either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump is no longer in contention for the US Presidency, this market will resolve in favor of the remaining candidate. This market will resolve immediately after the forecast is turned back on based on the first displayed odds. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100").
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/538-favorite-when-forecast-is-turned-on
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| RaIsTheSunGod | Trump | 806.83 |
| Haskell | Trump | 76.92 |
| Mart02 | Trump | 35.71 |
| jfehefj | Trump | 33.31 |
| Jvairava | Kamala | 25.64 |
| Yummy-Verb | Kamala | 7.81 |
| Jovialgent | Trump | 1.56 |