30-year mortgage rate below 5% before election?

economyResolved

No, settled Nov 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$27.5K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 1, 2024 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Nov 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 5% on 20 Sep 2024. Before it settled, across the 43 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, the highest close was 5% on 20 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Nov 2024. $27.47K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 2, 9:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 43 points, 20 Sep 2024 – 1 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Sep 2024	5.0%
1 Nov 2024	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Mangocheese	Yes	185.19
PufPuf	Yes	83.33
ElyaRachel	No	0.19
awvqckut	No	0.09

10 of 13 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 5.00% at any point between September 19 and October 31, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If for any reason there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previous available date will be used. The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable other credible reporting may be used.