Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 3.6% on 5 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 119 daily closes on record from 5 Dec 2025 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 4.5% on 22 Feb 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Apr 2026. $54.75K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 1, 7:55 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 119 points, 5 Dec 2025 – 1 Apr 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Dec 2025 | 3.6% |
| 1 Apr 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| yangguang0511 | Yes | 850 |
| LenaBobby | Yes | 511 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will not suffice. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'Republican Party' in the "Which party will win the House in 2026?" market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-in-2025-over-60-by-friday or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-us-house-election-republican-odds-by-march-31
| Yes |
| 120 |
| Indigo Raven BA64 | Yes | 100 |
| Lawful-Argument | Yes | 100 |
| SimonaMorrison | Yes | 90 |
| ABrijjdges | Yes | 70 |
| Golden Ledger C55B | Yes | 63.2 |
| nbholding | Yes | 30.15 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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