2025 September hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$108.8K

Resolved

Settled

Nov 14, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 14 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 4% on 30 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 77 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2025 to 14 Nov 2025, the highest close was 4% on 30 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 14 Sep 2025. $108.79K traded over the market's life.

47 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Nov 15, 4:38 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 77 points, 30 Aug 2025 – 14 Nov 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
30 Aug 2025	4.0%
14 Nov 2025	1.0%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	66.53K
Boiling-Resolution	Yes	6.81K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	6.22K
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	4.89K

10 of 47 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2025 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If 2025 September is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2025 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.