2025 May hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$229.3K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 10, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Jun 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 28.5% on 1 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 41 daily closes on record from 1 May 2025 to 10 Jun 2025, the highest close was 28.5% on 1 May 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 9 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 16.5% on 6 May 2025. $229.29K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jun 11, 4:26 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 41 points, 1 May 2025 – 10 Jun 2025, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 May 2025	28.5%
10 Jun 2025	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
justalgo	Yes	1K
accentii	Yes	404.02
piticu	Yes	207
Gammmbl	Yes	112

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior May when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for May 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for May, and if 2025 May is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 May is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2025 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.