2025 July hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 8, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$247.7K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 8, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 8 Aug 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 5 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 35 daily closes on record from 5 Jul 2025 to 8 Aug 2025, the highest close was 6.4% on 9 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 8 Aug 2025. $247.72K traded over the market's life.

104 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Aug 10, 12:54 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 35 points, 5 Jul 2025 – 8 Aug 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Jul 2025	5.5%
8 Aug 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ELTEZ	Yes	7.27K
wubaichen	Yes	6.01K
Supertard	Yes	5K
Waverider	Yes	3.13K

10 of 104 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior July when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for July 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for July, and if 2025 July is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 July is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2025 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.