2025 April hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled May 9, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$152.1K

Resolved

Settled

May 9, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 9 May 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 30.5% on 1 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 1 Apr 2025 to 9 May 2025, the highest close was 30.5% on 1 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 22 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 21 points down, to 10% on 2 Apr 2025. $152.06K traded over the market's life.

23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of May 11, 12:20 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 1 Apr 2025 – 9 May 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
1 Apr 2025	30.5%
9 May 2025	0.3%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
luke1111	Yes	4.5K
markitzero	Yes	1.91K
BRIGHT	Yes	1K
Soe	Yes	322.42

10 of 23 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2025 shows an increase greater than that of any prior April when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for April 2025 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for April, and if 2025 April is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2025 April is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2025 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.