Analytics
Resolved No on 21 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32% on 31 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 52 daily closes on record from 31 Aug 2024 to 21 Oct 2024, the highest close was 36.5% on 1 Sep 2024 and the lowest 0.5% on 21 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 13.5% on 6 Sep 2024. $894.64K traded over the market's life.
90 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 22, 5:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 31 Aug 2024 – 21 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2024 | 32.0% |
| 21 Oct 2024 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior September when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for September 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for September, and if 2024 September is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 September is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2024 is provided by NASA by January 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2024-september-hottest-on-record
| Rundown-Issue | Yes | 500 |
| Onler156 | Yes | 402.64 |
| K87 | Yes | 388.08 |
| DiBiase | Yes | 347.76 |
| Capital-Garment | Yes | 249.17 |
| Tunnn | Yes | 192.31 |
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