Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 11 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 305 daily closes on record from 11 Jan 2024 to 10 Nov 2024, the highest close was 18.9% on 13 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 15 points down, to 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $5.78M traded over the market's life.
381 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 305 points, 11 Jan 2024 – 10 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2024 | 15.5% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.65M |
| willy-wonka | Yes | 375.04K |
| Anon327 | Yes | 82.55K |
This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election
| Breeezy | Yes | 73.29K |
| Nutty-Trout | Yes | 62.68K |
| bradley | Yes | 61.46K |
| Mealy-Scalp | Yes | 50.07K |
| Dame | Yes | 42.37K |
| kosta | Yes | 34.54K |
| tris-tan | Yes | 30.85K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
