Analytics
Resolved No on 10 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 13% on 11 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 305 daily closes on record from 11 Jan 2024 to 10 Nov 2024, the highest close was 14.5% on 12 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 0.1% on 7 Nov 2024. $4.5M traded over the market's life.
324 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 5:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 305 points, 11 Jan 2024 – 10 Nov 2024, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2024 | 13.0% |
| 10 Nov 2024 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.65M |
| HodlenCaulfield | Yes | 56.41K |
| Anon327 | Yes | 50.74K |
This is a market on the anticipated margin of victory in the Electoral College for the upcoming presidential election.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/electoral-college-margin-of-victory-in-the-2024-presidential-election
| CHIKITYCHINESECHICKEN | Yes | 50K |
| willy-wonka | Yes | 50K |
| Dame | Yes | 45.83K |
| Nutty-Trout | Yes | 43.35K |
| kosta | Yes | 43.3K |
| Mealy-Scalp | Yes | 43K |
| woosan | Yes | 40.79K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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