Analytics
Resolved No on 8 Nov 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95%. Yes opened at 18% on 1 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 1 Oct 2024 to 8 Nov 2024, the highest close was 55% on 26 Oct 2024 and the lowest 5% on 8 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 46.5% on 24 Oct 2024. $837.98K traded over the market's life.
69 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Nov 9, 6:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 1 Oct 2024 – 8 Nov 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2024 | 18.0% |
| 8 Nov 2024 | 5.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Menacing-Kendo | Yes | 11.98K |
| HybridSpear | Yes | 143.4 |
| derPierre | Yes | 100 |
| bardaleks | Yes | 78.69 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior October when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for October 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for October, and if 2024 October is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 October is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Oct" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2024 is provided by NASA by February 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Resolution source: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2024-october-hottest-on-record
| Andy117 | Yes | 75 |
| polygamey | Yes | 69 |
| JackVn888 | Yes | 54.55 |
| BLMZ | Yes | 51.2 |
| amendedestages | Yes | 42.48 |
| Iv3X | Yes | 32.54 |
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