2024 December hottest on record?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$326.9K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 10, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 10 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 3 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 3 Dec 2024 to 10 Jan 2025, the highest close was 21.5% on 3 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.2% on 10 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 15% on 4 Dec 2024. $326.92K traded over the market's life.

48 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 1, 12:26 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 3 Dec 2024 – 10 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
3 Dec 2024	21.5%
10 Jan 2025	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
KingFrogMan	Yes	40.71K
Flexxii	Yes	3.75K
HanselPete	Yes	999.95
Kmafi	Yes	810.46

10 of 48 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for December 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior December when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for December 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for December, and if 2024 December is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 December is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Dec" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for December 2024 is provided by NASA by April 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.