Analytics
Resolved Yes on 10 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 98.8%. Yes opened at 55% on 2 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2024 to 10 Sep 2024, the highest close was 98.8% on 10 Sep 2024 and the lowest 54.5% on 6 Aug 2024. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points up, to 77% on 11 Aug 2024. $3.61M traded over the market's life.
100 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 11, 5:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 2 Aug 2024 – 10 Sep 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2024 | 55.0% |
| 10 Sep 2024 | 98.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dearest-Paperwork | No | 521.57K |
| analord | No | 270.93K |
| Memerman | No | 24.81K |
| BobPage | No | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2024 shows an increase greater than that of any prior August when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At the point the data for August 2024 is first released, it will be compared to all previous data points for August, and if 2024 August is higher than all previous data points, this market will resolve to "Yes". Note: If 2024 August is tied for highest with another year, it will NOT suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" - it must be higher. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for August 2024 is provided by NASA by December 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2024-august-hottest-on-record
| Thomas1713 | No | 4.93K |
| alexy | No | 3.8K |
| WxRx | No | 3.76K |
| Nagibator | No | 2.58K |
| Lyapunov | No | 2K |
| Halfsaxk | No | 1.63K |
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