100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$194.6K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 20 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 20 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 14.5% on 22 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 9.8 points down, to 3.7% on 24 Dec 2024. $194.61K traded over the market's life.

38 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 6:39 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 20 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
20 Dec 2024	13.5%
1 Jan 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
BirdFluRUs	Yes	12.85K
Soft-Chocolate	Yes	1.55K
BingoBango58	Yes	1.33K
psriv	Yes	1.33K

10 of 38 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.