100+ Bird Flu cases in U.S. before April?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$69.2K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 22% on 11 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 81 daily closes on record from 11 Jan 2025 to 1 Apr 2025, the highest close was 22% on 11 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points down, to 11.5% on 23 Jan 2025. $69.25K traded over the market's life.

32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 2:46 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 81 points, 11 Jan 2025 – 1 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
11 Jan 2025	22.0%
1 Apr 2025	0.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
ploop3	Yes	9.66K
Anonops	Yes	1.05K
Zenstockman	Yes	1.02K

10 of 32 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 100 or more confirmed cases of H5 Bird Flu in humans in the territory of the United States of America during the 2024 outbreak according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC H5 Bird Flu counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.