10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 25, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$146.8K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 25, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 25 Apr 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 86.5%. Yes opened at 45.5% on 19 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 19 Apr 2025 to 25 Apr 2025, the highest close was 58% on 22 Apr 2025 and the lowest 13.5% on 25 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 27 points down, to 13.5% on 25 Apr 2025. $146.82K traded over the market's life.

22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 27, 12:30 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 19 Apr 2025 – 25 Apr 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
19 Apr 2025	45.5%
25 Apr 2025	13.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Solar Pioneer 2449	Yes	620
Emerald Comet A6D3	Yes	615
Quiet Summit 602D	Yes	545
Misty Pioneer BB19	Yes	235

10 of 22 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on April 25, 2025 is greater than 4.40% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).