Analytics
Resolved No on 22 Aug 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 43.5%. Yes opened at 51% on 16 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 16 Aug 2025 to 22 Aug 2025, the highest close was 56.5% on 20 Aug 2025 and the lowest 37.5% on 21 Aug 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 37.5% on 21 Aug 2025. $9.61K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 24, 12:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 16 Aug 2025 – 22 Aug 2025, chart shows 30%–70%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2025 | 51.0% |
| 22 Aug 2025 | 56.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 1.77K |
| VibeTrader | Yes | 300 |
| commeowder | Yes | 225.7 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 130 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Treasury 10-year yield on August 22, 2025 is greater than 4.30% according to the daily values published by the Department of the Treasury. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/10-year-treasury-yield-4pt3-friday-715
| Neon Oracle A8A9 | Yes | 12 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | Yes | 10 |
| 24793723 | Yes | 7 |
| KERRY | Yes | 7 |
| jhhjfgjfgh | Yes | 7 |
| sgdfhsfg | Yes | 7 |
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