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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? | Yes | 4.09 | $0.943 | $3.87 | +$0.01 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.09 | $0.934 | $0.08 | 17h ago |
|
| No |
| 2.95 |
| $0.930 |
| $2.75 |
| +$0.01 |
 NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? | No | 1.71 | $0.850 | $1.48 | +$0.03 |
 Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31? | No | 1.77 | $0.840 | $1.45 | -$0.04 |
 Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? | Yes | 1.04 | $0.680 | $0.69 | -$0.02 |
 Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | Yes | 0.89 | $0.522 | $0.48 | +$0.02 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | 0.6 | $0.570 | $0.36 | +$0.02 |
| sell |
| 0.23 |
| $0.932 |
| $0.21 |
| 23h ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.08 | $0.932 | $0.07 | 23h ago |
 Will CDU win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?No | sell | 1.96 | $0.100 | $0.2 | 2d ago |
| Will CDU win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?No | buy | 1.97 | $0.980 | $1.93 | 2d ago |
 Will Shas win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes | sell | 1.98 | $0.320 | $0.63 | 2d ago |
| Will Shas win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes | buy | 1.98 | $0.580 | $1.15 | 2d ago |
| Will Netanyahu be pardoned by December 31?No | buy | 1.77 | $0.840 | $1.49 | 2d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.76 | $0.930 | $0.71 | 4d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 1.12 | $0.930 | $1.04 | 4d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 1.46 | $0.930 | $1.36 | 4d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 1.48 | $0.920 | $1.36 | 5d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.01 | $0.650 | $0.01 | 6d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.05 | $0.680 | $0.03 | 6d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.01 | $0.680 | $0.01 | 6d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.06 | $0.700 | $0.04 | 6d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.28 | $0.700 | $0.2 | 6d ago |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Yes | sell | 0.04 | $0.560 | $0.02 | 6d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | sell | 0.02 | $0.690 | $0.01 | 7d ago |
| Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?Yes | buy | 1.47 | $0.680 | $1 | 7d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.14 | $0.930 | $0.13 | 11d ago |
 Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August?Yes | sell | 7.18 | $0.110 | $0.79 | 13d ago |
| Will the US lose between 0 and 50k jobs in August?Yes | buy | 7.19 | $0.154 | $1.11 | 13d ago |
 Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?No | sell | 1.8 | $0.130 | $0.23 | 13d ago |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.8 | $0.650 | $1.17 | 13d ago |
 Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?No | sell | 1.46 | $0.780 | $1.14 | 14d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.31 | $0.920 | $0.29 | 14d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.17 | $0.920 | $0.16 | 14d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 0.1 | $0.920 | $0.09 | 16d ago |
| Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?No | buy | 1.48 | $0.930 | $1.38 | 17d ago |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.2% in July?No | buy | 1.46 | $0.800 | $1.17 | 18d ago |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?No | sell | 2.58 | $0.991 | $2.56 | 18d ago |
 Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes | sell | 1.36 | $0.700 | $0.95 | 22d ago |
| Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes | buy | 1.37 | $0.879 | $1.2 | 22d ago |
| Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes | sell | 2.19 | $0.571 | $1.25 | 22d ago |
| Will Eli Cohen win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?Yes | buy | 2.2 | $0.728 | $1.6 | 22d ago |
 Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | sell | 3.01 | $0.510 | $1.54 | 22d ago |
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | buy | 3.02 | $0.580 | $1.75 | 22d ago |
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | sell | 0.01 | $0.160 | $0 | 22d ago |
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | buy | 8.64 | $0.140 | $1.21 | 22d ago |
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | sell | 15.76 | $0.134 | $2.11 | 22d ago |
| Will Amir Ohana win the 2026 Likud party primary elections?No | buy | 15.76 | $0.170 | $2.68 | 22d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | buy | 5.94 | $0.930 | $5.52 | 22d ago |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 0.06 | $0.976 | $0.06 | 23d ago |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 3.76 | $0.976 | $3.67 | 23d ago |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 3.76 | $0.976 | $3.67 | 23d ago |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 0.76 | $0.976 | $0.74 | 23d ago |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026?Yes | buy | 1.17 | $0.950 | $1.11 | 29d ago |
| Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?No | sell | 1.55 | $0.810 | $1.26 | 29d ago |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 8.35 | $0.975 | $8.14 | Aug 7, 2026 |