Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?No | buy | 176.59 | $0.697 | $123.15 | Dec 11, 2025 |
|
| sell |
| 128.02 |
| $0.962 |
| $123.16 |
| Dec 11, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No | buy | 128.03 | $0.732 | $93.74 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No | sell | 95.15 | $0.985 | $93.74 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No | buy | 95.15 | $0.577 | $54.89 | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No | sell | 55.42 | $0.990 | $54.88 | Dec 8, 2025 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?Yes | buy | 148.05 | $0.200 | $29.61 | Dec 6, 2025 |
| Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No | buy | 55.43 | $0.271 | $15 | Dec 6, 2025 |
 Will Google have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?Yes | buy | 52.64 | $0.760 | $40 | Dec 6, 2025 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Yes | buy | 72.71 | $0.275 | $20 | Dec 6, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model at the end of November 2025?Yes | buy | 104.61 | $0.890 | $93.1 | Nov 15, 2025 |
 Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Yes | buy | 78.95 | $0.380 | $30 | Nov 15, 2025 |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?No | buy | 133.33 | $0.150 | $20 | Nov 15, 2025 |
 Will anyone say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 7+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?No | buy | 173.22 | $0.346 | $60 | Sep 9, 2025 |
 Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31?No | buy | 86.96 | $0.230 | $20 | Sep 6, 2025 |
 Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?No | buy | 65.57 | $0.610 | $40 | Sep 6, 2025 |
| Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?No | buy | 28.17 | $0.710 | $20 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Trump out as President in 2025?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.100 | $50 | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | sell | 551.39 | $0.005 | $2.54 | Aug 30, 2025 |
 Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-30?Yes | buy | 25.32 | $0.790 | $20 | Aug 27, 2025 |
 Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?No | buy | 281.84 | $0.071 | $20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?No | buy | 319.62 | $0.063 | $20 | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 31?No | buy | 64.18 | $0.312 | $20 | Aug 24, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | buy | 531.39 | $0.038 | $20 | Aug 24, 2025 |
 Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?No | buy | 80 | $0.500 | $40 | Aug 24, 2025 |
 Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.640 | $40 | Aug 24, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 136.64 | $0.961 | $131.33 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode?No | buy | 76.13 | $0.263 | $20 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 achieve a successful splashdown?Yes | buy | 33.5 | $0.597 | $20 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?No | buy | 52.17 | $0.460 | $24 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?Yes | buy | 42.86 | $0.700 | $30 | Aug 23, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.200 | $4 | Aug 16, 2025 |
 US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?No | sell | 139.8 | $0.009 | $1.27 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?Yes | sell | 12.5 | $0.200 | $2.5 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.480 | $6 | Aug 7, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 71.43 | $0.280 | $20 | Aug 6, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No | sell | 104.72 | $0.001 | $0.1 | Aug 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31?Yes | buy | 153.85 | $0.130 | $20 | Aug 2, 2025 |
| US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?No | buy | 139.81 | $0.143 | $20 | Aug 2, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 65.22 | $0.460 | $30 | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No | buy | 37.16 | $0.296 | $11 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?No | buy | 67.57 | $0.296 | $20 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?Yes | buy | 64.94 | $0.770 | $50 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?No | buy | 31.25 | $0.640 | $20 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Yes | sell | 78.85 | $0.005 | $0.39 | Jun 29, 2025 |
 Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?Yes | sell | 55.55 | $0.014 | $0.78 | Jun 29, 2025 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Yes | buy | 78.86 | $0.350 | $27.6 | Jun 22, 2025 |
 Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?No | sell | 30 | $0.920 | $27.6 | Jun 22, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?Yes | buy | 41.36 | $0.250 | $10.34 | Jun 10, 2025 |
| Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.270 | $15 | Jun 10, 2025 |