Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?Yes | buy | 2.81K | $0.160 | $450 | Mar 27, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 917.65 |
| $0.163 |
| $150 |
| Mar 6, 2025 |
 Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?Yes | buy | 605 | $0.413 | $250 | Mar 6, 2025 |
 Will Fed end QT before May?Yes | buy | 214.17 | $0.467 | $100 | Mar 6, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 680.71 | $0.441 | $300 | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 7.69K | $0.026 | $200 | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 983.04 | $0.153 | $150 | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 50.52K | $0.020 | $1K | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 33.34K | $0.030 | $1K | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 359.39 | $0.278 | $100 | Feb 15, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 33.57K | $0.030 | $1K | Jan 22, 2025 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?Yes | buy | 357.14 | $0.280 | $100 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 4.76K | $0.021 | $100 | Jan 14, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 277.78 | $0.180 | $50 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.300 | $25 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon?Yes | buy | 572.53 | $0.262 | $150 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?Yes | buy | 128.21 | $0.780 | $100 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?Yes | buy | 70.42 | $0.710 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?Yes | buy | 65.79 | $0.760 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
| Will Biden issue a preemptive pardon?Yes | buy | 96.15 | $0.260 | $25 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days?Yes | buy | 454.55 | $0.110 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?Yes | buy | 206.58 | $0.242 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.300 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?Yes | buy | 69.44 | $0.720 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 555.56 | $0.090 | $50 | Jan 4, 2025 |
 Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?Yes | buy | 675.68 | $0.370 | $250 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?Yes | sell | 500 | $0.040 | $20.05 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseYes | sell | 1.08K | $0.209 | $224.55 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 House control after 2024 election?Republican | sell | 256.41 | $0.700 | $179.49 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez, R Senate, D HouseYes | buy | 1.08K | $0.232 | $250 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes | sell | 500 | $0.683 | $341.5 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will Republicans have 230 or more seats in House after election?Yes | sell | 1.2K | $0.141 | $168.8 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R HouseYes | sell | 1K | $0.387 | $386.83 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election?Yes | buy | 124.09 | $0.699 | $86.78 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Will another state be the closest state?Yes | buy | 166.8 | $0.600 | $100 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 GOP wins popular vote by 3-4%?Yes | sell | 7.17K | $0.026 | $186.77 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104Yes | buy | 141.9 | $0.300 | $42.57 | Nov 6, 2024 |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 105-154Yes | sell | 1.55K | $0.027 | $42.57 | Nov 6, 2024 |
 Trump wins every swing state?Yes | buy | 771.17 | $0.199 | $153.82 | Nov 5, 2024 |
 Will New Hampshire be the closest state?Yes | buy | 892.14 | $0.056 | $50 | Nov 5, 2024 |
 Will Nevada be the closest state?Yes | sell | 714.28 | $0.207 | $147.56 | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Will another state be the closest state?Yes | sell | 937.5 | $0.060 | $56.26 | Nov 5, 2024 |
| Will a Republican win Ohio US Senate Election?Yes | buy | 85.26 | $0.580 | $49.45 | Oct 26, 2024 |
| Will Republicans have 56 or more seats in Senate after election?Yes | buy | 661.8 | $0.151 | $100 | Oct 26, 2024 |
| Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?Yes | buy | 1.15K | $0.087 | $100 | Oct 26, 2024 |
| Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?Yes | buy | 816.74 | $0.122 | $100 | Oct 26, 2024 |
| Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?Yes | buy | 833.33 | $0.120 | $100 | Oct 26, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?Yes | buy | 476.19 | $0.210 | $100 | Oct 26, 2024 |
 Will Harris win New Jersey by 10+ points?No | buy | 166.67 | $0.300 | $50 | Oct 26, 2024 |
| Will another state be the closest state?Yes | buy | 937.5 | $0.160 | $150 | Oct 26, 2024 |