Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 20-26?No | buy | 2.18 | $0.994 | $2.17 | Oct 26, 2025 |
 |
| buy |
| 4.02 |
| $0.994 |
| $4 |
| Oct 26, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 2.62 | $0.994 | $2.6 | Oct 26, 2025 |
 Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?No | buy | 3.34 | $0.958 | $3.2 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?No | buy | 4.59 | $0.981 | $4.5 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will CarMax (KMX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?No | buy | 1.51 | $0.995 | $1.5 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will Costco Wholesale (COST) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?No | buy | 1.91 | $0.997 | $1.9 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?Yes | buy | 2.68 | $0.934 | $2.5 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?Yes | buy | 3.02 | $0.995 | $3 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?No | buy | 2.03 | $0.983 | $2 | Oct 20, 2025 |
 Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?Yes | sell | 2 | $0.450 | $0.9 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?Yes | buy | 2.17 | $0.460 | $1 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No | buy | 1.89 | $0.940 | $1.78 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?No | buy | 6.31 | $0.999 | $6.3 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?No | sell | 5.2 | $0.910 | $4.73 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?No | buy | 5.43 | $0.920 | $5 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?Yes | sell | 20.45 | $0.160 | $3.27 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?Yes | buy | 20.56 | $0.180 | $3.7 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?No | sell | 6.84 | $0.930 | $6.36 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?No | buy | 7.37 | $0.950 | $7 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?No | buy | 5.91 | $0.999 | $5.9 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | sell | 7 | $0.760 | $5.32 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 7.34 | $0.790 | $5.8 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 3.18 | $0.995 | $3.16 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Iran by September 30?No | buy | 7.05 | $0.993 | $7 | Sep 29, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?No | buy | 6.77 | $0.989 | $6.7 | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?No | sell | 2.15 | $0.750 | $1.61 | Aug 15, 2025 |
 Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?No | buy | 1.42 | $0.930 | $1.32 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?No | buy | 2.15 | $0.910 | $1.96 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?No | sell | 1.48 | $0.880 | $1.3 | Jul 12, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?No | buy | 1.48 | $0.830 | $1.23 | Jun 5, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?Yes | sell | 6.15 | $0.170 | $1.05 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 USDT depeg in 2025?Yes | sell | 21.42 | $0.080 | $1.71 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025?No | sell | 4.57 | $0.700 | $3.2 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?No | sell | 5 | $0.900 | $4.5 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?No | sell | 7.4 | $0.995 | $7.36 | Jun 5, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump be the next Pope?No | buy | 4.06 | $0.999 | $4.06 | May 3, 2025 |
| Jumper airdrop in Q2 2025?No | buy | 4.57 | $0.947 | $4.33 | May 3, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May?No | buy | 4.96 | $0.963 | $4.78 | May 3, 2025 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | Feb 22, 2025 |
 Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.800 | $2.4 | Feb 22, 2025 |
 Dave Portnoy in jail before March?No | buy | 4.75 | $0.995 | $4.73 | Feb 22, 2025 |
 Was the captain of crashed Delta flight a woman?No | buy | 7.04 | $0.994 | $7 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| USDT depeg in 2025?Yes | buy | 21.43 | $0.140 | $3 | Feb 22, 2025 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before July?No | buy | 7.41 | $0.945 | $7 | Feb 7, 2025 |
 Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?No | buy | 4.2 | $0.880 | $3.7 | Feb 7, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025?Yes | buy | 6.15 | $0.650 | $4 | Feb 7, 2025 |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?No | buy | 5 | $0.530 | $2.65 | Feb 7, 2025 |
 Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Feb 7, 2025 |