Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 8, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 5.01 |
| $0.999 |
| $5 |
| May 8, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $200B and $300B at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 8, 2026 |
 Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | May 8, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 8, 2026 |
 Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.994 | $4.98 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.993 | $4.97 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.997 | $4.99 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?No | sell | 5 | $0.999 | $5 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | sell | 5.06 | $0.990 | $5.01 | Apr 25, 2026 |
 Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 5.06 | $0.983 | $4.97 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.989 | $4.95 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the April 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 3.5%?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will NVIDIA reach $272 in February?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $250 end of February?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.988 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.25% at the end of 2026?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.989 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.994 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?No | buy | 5.07 | $0.987 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No | sell | 10.05 | $0.992 | $9.97 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 9 above $2.00?Yes | buy | 10.01 | $0.999 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 10.05 | $0.995 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No | buy | 10.02 | $0.998 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | sell | 5.06 | $0.974 | $4.93 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 5.04 | $0.972 | $4.9 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?Yes | buy | 6.01 | $0.999 | $6 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Yes | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.988 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.988 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No | sell | 5 | $0.997 | $4.99 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 US strike on Mexico by January 31?No | sell | 5 | $0.996 | $4.98 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.993 | $4.97 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will the next Dutch government be another combination?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.994 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 2, 2026 |