Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 1.24K | $0.447 | $476.1 | -$76.9 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 23.87 | $0.628 | $15 | 12h ago |
 |
| No |
| 894.27 |
| $0.391 |
| $263.81 |
| -$86.19 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | Yes | 166.67 | $0.150 | $107.5 | +$82.5 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 100 | $0.400 | $79.5 | +$39.5 |
 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 125 | $0.560 | $60.63 | -$9.38 |
 Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours? | Yes | 200 | $0.150 | $56 | +$26 |
 Will Trump and Putin not meet? | Yes | 149.18 | $0.610 | $52.96 | -$38.04 |
 Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026? | No | 37.04 | $0.540 | $36.67 | +$16.67 |
 Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 387.63 | $0.193 | $31.01 | -$43.99 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Yes | 129.17 | $0.232 | $28.42 | -$1.58 |
 Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | Yes | 37.5 | $0.400 | $20.06 | +$5.06 |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 371.22 | $0.162 | $15.96 | -$44.04 |
| Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? | No | 23.87 | $0.628 | $15.78 | +$0.78 |
 Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k? | No | 55.56 | $0.270 | $15.28 | +$0.28 |
 Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31? | Yes | 15.67 | $0.957 | $15.1 | +$0.1 |
 Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 26.32 | $0.570 | $15 | $0 |
 Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 177.14 | $0.282 | $14.17 | -$35.83 |
 Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027? | No | 15.48 | $0.969 | $13.93 | -$1.07 |
 Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30? | Yes | 23.55 | $0.637 | $13 | -$2 |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 57.69 | $0.260 | $12.4 | -$2.6 |
 Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? | No | 137.99 | $0.090 | $11.73 | -$0.69 |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026? | No | 16.24 | $0.758 | $10.97 | -$1.34 |
 Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026? | No | 33.33 | $0.450 | $10.83 | -$4.17 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 13, 2026? | No | 15.09 | $0.994 | $9.8 | -$5.2 |
 Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of September 2026? | Yes | 395.58 | $0.202 | $9.69 | -$70.31 |
| sell |
| 32.78 |
| $0.682 |
| $22.34 |
| 13h ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 26.32 | $0.570 | $15 | 3d ago |
| Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 57.69 | $0.260 | $15 | 4d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?No | sell | 11.05 | $0.280 | $3.09 | 4d ago |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?No | sell | 3.55 | $0.620 | $2.2 | 4d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?No | sell | 11.72 | $0.320 | $3.75 | 5d ago |
 Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Yes | sell | 11.82 | $0.479 | $5.66 | 6d ago |
 Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?No | sell | 4.3 | $0.860 | $3.7 | 6d ago |
| Will "Day and Night" - Carly Rae Jepsen first week album sales be less than 30k?No | buy | 55.56 | $0.270 | $15 | 7d ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 13, 2026?No | buy | 15.09 | $0.994 | $15 | 7d ago |
 Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?Yes | buy | 16.22 | $0.925 | $15 | 8d ago |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 62.76 | $0.023 | $1.47 | 8d ago |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 41.8 | $0.030 | $1.25 | 8d ago |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 85.56 | $0.175 | $15 | 8d ago |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 33.33 | $0.450 | $15 | 8d ago |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?No | buy | 15.48 | $0.969 | $15 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 5.75 | $0.967 | $5.56 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 5.29 | $0.967 | $5.12 | 8d ago |
| Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?Yes | buy | 23.55 | $0.637 | $15 | 8d ago |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?No | sell | 0.02 | $0.800 | $0.02 | 8d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?No | sell | 5.91 | $0.400 | $2.36 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 9.18 | $0.955 | $8.77 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 2.87 | $0.955 | $2.74 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 2.56 | $0.966 | $2.47 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 2.56 | $0.966 | $2.47 | 8d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | sell | 2.56 | $0.966 | $2.47 | 8d ago |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 15, 2026?No | buy | 375.85 | $0.040 | $15 | 9d ago |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?Yes | buy | 15.67 | $0.957 | $15 | 9d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | buy | 15.15 | $0.990 | $15 | 9d ago |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-high be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?No | buy | 15.63 | $0.960 | $15 | 9d ago |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?No | sell | 60.28 | $0.250 | $15.07 | 10d ago |
| Will the next Gemini Flash model (3.8+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 71.43 | $0.210 | $15 | 10d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 53.34 | $0.270 | $14.4 | 10d ago |
| Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.180 | $15 | 10d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 23.08 | $0.650 | $15 | 10d ago |
| Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on September 30, 2026?No | buy | 19.79 | $0.758 | $15 | 10d ago |
| Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.387 | $11.6 | 11d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 7.87 | $0.330 | $2.6 | 11d ago |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?No | buy | 166.67 | $0.090 | $15 | 11d ago |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?No | sell | 39.4 | $0.361 | $14.23 | 11d ago |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?No | sell | 0.3 | $0.450 | $0.14 | 11d ago |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 4 | $0.310 | $1.24 | 11d ago |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?No | buy | 100 | $0.150 | $15 | 11d ago |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 125 | $0.560 | $70 | 13d ago |
 Will "Wildchild" - Alex Warren first week album sales be between 50k and 70k?Yes | buy | 18.79 | $0.798 | $15 | 13d ago |
 What percent of U.S. corn production area will be in drought? (week of September 1)No | buy | 16.48 | $0.910 | $15 | 14d ago |
 What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)No | buy | 25 | $0.600 | $15 | 14d ago |
 Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from September 1 to September 8, 2026?Yes | sell | 24.13 | $0.700 | $16.89 | 14d ago |
| Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on August 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 23.44 | $0.640 | $15 | 14d ago |