Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | No | 5.49 | $0.910 | $4.97 | -$0.03 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.49 | $0.910 | $5 | 14d ago |
|
| No |
| 2.08 |
| $0.480 |
| $1.7 |
| +$0.7 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | No | 1.45 | $0.690 | $1.33 | +$0.33 |
 Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | Yes | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
 Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? | No | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1.13 | +$0.13 |
 US strike on Mexico by December 31? | No | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1.03 | +$0.03 |
 Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | No | 1.02 | $0.980 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
 100kt meteor strike in 2026? | No | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | +$0 |
 AI bubble burst in 2026? | Yes | 5.81 | $0.172 | $0.61 | -$0.39 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes | 7 | $0.230 | $0.53 | -$1.09 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Yes | 4.76 | $0.210 | $0.33 | -$0.67 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 7.69 | $0.130 | $0.3 | -$0.7 |
 Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | No | 4.76 | $0.210 | $0.2 | -$0.8 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 27.03 | $0.037 | $0.19 | -$0.81 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | Yes | 5.88 | $0.170 | $0.06 | -$0.94 |
 Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? | No | 3.57 | $0.280 | $0.01 | -$0.99 |
| buy |
| 2.08 |
| $0.480 |
| $1 |
| Aug 4, 2026 |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?Yes | buy | 1.28 | $0.780 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?No | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Yes | buy | 27.03 | $0.037 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 ChatGPT Full Outage by April 10?No | buy | 9.02 | $0.998 | $9 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?No | buy | 1.03 | $0.970 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 1.36 | $0.720 | $0.98 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by April 30?No | buy | 11.09 | $0.992 | $11 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by May 31?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.980 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Tucker Carlson announces a run for office by June 30?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 39.0% in April?No | buy | 1.54 | $0.650 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.0% in April?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.070 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?No | buy | 1.43 | $0.700 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.900 | $5 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?No | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 16, 2026?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 13?No | buy | 7.75 | $0.120 | $0.93 | Apr 11, 2026 |
| Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by April 12?No | buy | 11.26 | $0.082 | $0.93 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Will "Trump" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 13)No | buy | 2.12 | $0.450 | $0.96 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Yes | sell | 5.55 | $0.100 | $0.56 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 AWS service disrupted by January 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.050 | $0.5 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?Yes | buy | 36.26 | $0.028 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $5 million?No | buy | 18.52 | $0.054 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?No | buy | 34.48 | $0.029 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?No | buy | 1.64 | $0.610 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by March 31?No | buy | 1.64 | $0.610 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Yes | buy | 4.76 | $0.210 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 ICE shooter charged by March 31?No | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 2 | $0.500 | $1 | Jan 10, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Yes | buy | 5.56 | $0.180 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?Yes | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?No | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?Yes | buy | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 10.21 | $0.098 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| AI bubble burst in 2026?Yes | buy | 5.81 | $0.172 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Google Gemini ParlayYes | buy | 4 | $0.250 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes | buy | 1.47 | $0.680 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes | buy | 1.11 | $0.900 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Yes | buy | 1.03 | $0.970 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes | buy | 1.08 | $0.930 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?No | buy | 1.3 | $0.770 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will Poland win Eurovision 2026?Yes | buy | 29.29 | $0.034 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |
 Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026?Yes | buy | 67.4 | $0.015 | $1 | Jan 5, 2026 |