Analytics
The cohort performance summary keeps its original period. These positions are a separate Polymarket observation and do not establish complete position history.
A complete provider position result is unavailable. Missing positions and amounts are not shown as zero holdings.
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? | No | 485.55 | $0.620 | $386.01 | +$84.93 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | sell | 40 | $0.730 | $29.2 | 10h ago |
 |
| No |
| 220.95 |
| $0.776 |
| $174.55 |
| +$3.15 |
| Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026? | No | 180.41 | $0.920 | $170.13 | +$4.15 |
| Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? | No | 205.26 | $0.828 | $140.6 | -$29.41 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 160 | $0.860 | $136.8 | -$0.8 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | No | 120 | $0.910 | $112.2 | +$3 |
 Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026? | No | 120 | $0.800 | $105 | +$9 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | No | 115.67 | $0.771 | $100.05 | +$10.89 |
 Will SPD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 120 | $0.900 | $94.2 | -$13.8 |
 GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | 90.48 | $0.897 | $84.6 | +$3.43 |
 Will Bayern Munich be the 2026-27 Bundesliga champion? | Yes | 94.55 | $0.860 | $82.73 | +$1.42 |
 Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | No | 80 | $0.920 | $77.8 | +$4.2 |
 Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026? | No | 80 | $0.940 | $77.12 | +$1.92 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | 80.01 | $0.870 | $75.61 | +$6 |
 Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | No | 80 | $0.920 | $74.8 | +$1.2 |
 Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? | No | 80 | $0.820 | $74.8 | +$9.2 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | No | 80 | $0.900 | $72.4 | +$0.4 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 99.98 | $0.574 | $71.49 | +$14.1 |
 Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election? | Yes | 127.87 | $0.608 | $70.97 | -$6.72 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | No | 80 | $0.840 | $68.4 | +$1.2 |
 Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027? | No | 92.31 | $0.699 | $66 | +$1.5 |
 Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? | No | 79.13 | $0.825 | $62.91 | -$2.34 |
 Will John Brennan be arrested before 2027? | No | 80 | $0.730 | $62.8 | +$4.4 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 126 | $0.443 | $62.37 | +$6.58 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | No | 216.2 | $0.366 | $57.29 | -$21.83 |
| sell |
| 25 |
| $0.840 |
| $21 |
| 10h ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | sell | 80.01 | $0.999 | $79.93 | 14h ago |
 Will Victor Mellor be the RI-02 Republican nominee?No | sell | 19.18 | $0.710 | $13.62 | 20h ago |
 Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Yes | sell | 16.07 | $0.340 | $5.46 | 21h ago |
| Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Yes | sell | 9.76 | $0.280 | $2.73 | 21h ago |
| Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Yes | buy | 39.99 | $0.242 | $9.7 | 21h ago |
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | sell | 80 | $0.840 | $67.2 | 21h ago |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.160 | $3.2 | 22h ago |
| US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?No | buy | 40 | $0.850 | $34 | 22h ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | buy | 40 | $0.900 | $36 | 22h ago |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.349 | $27.91 | 23h ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes | buy | 19.99 | $0.540 | $10.79 | 23h ago |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes | sell | 79.99 | $0.650 | $51.99 | 23h ago |
 Will Iran target Jordan by September 15, 2026?No | sell | 12 | $0.080 | $0.96 | 1d ago |
| Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?No | buy | 20 | $0.720 | $14.4 | 1d ago |
| Will Stephen Skoly be the RI-02 Republican nominee?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.710 | $14.2 | 1d ago |
 Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 24 | $0.780 | $18.72 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?No | sell | 24.06 | $0.590 | $14.2 | 1d ago |
 Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | sell | 12 | $0.500 | $6 | 1d ago |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | sell | 19.84 | $0.500 | $9.92 | 1d ago |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?No | buy | 79.99 | $0.140 | $11.2 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?Yes | buy | 39.2 | $0.650 | $25.48 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Yes | sell | 24 | $0.420 | $10.08 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No | sell | 25.47 | $0.486 | $12.39 | 1d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?No | buy | 91.96 | $0.465 | $42.72 | 1d ago |
| Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | 1d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.550 | $2.75 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?No | buy | 40 | $0.870 | $34.8 | 1d ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.510 | $10.2 | 1d ago |
 Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Yes | buy | 32 | $0.500 | $16 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | 1d ago |
 Will Maura Sullivan be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?Yes | buy | 16 | $0.830 | $13.28 | 1d ago |
 Will Drake release a new album by December 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.640 | $3.2 | 1d ago |
 LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.870 | $34.8 | 1d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.350 | $7 | 1d ago |
 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.422 | $16.88 | 1d ago |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3.05 | $0.430 | $1.31 | 1d ago |
 Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No | buy | 5 | $0.829 | $4.15 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.870 | $34.8 | 1d ago |
| LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?No | buy | 40 | $0.740 | $29.6 | 1d ago |
 Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Yes | sell | 28 | $0.650 | $18.2 | 1d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 17.27 | $0.350 | $6.04 | 1d ago |
 Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 80 | $0.894 | $71.51 | 1d ago |
 Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 12 | $0.200 | $2.4 | 1d ago |
| Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.410 | $3.28 | 1d ago |
| Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.400 | $16 | 1d ago |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.780 | $3.9 | 2d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?No | sell | 0.24 | $0.350 | $0.08 | 2d ago |
| Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.350 | $7 | 2d ago |