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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?Yes | sell | 5.26 | $0.090 | $0.47 | Aug 13, 2025 |
 |
| sell |
| 8.18 |
| $0.840 |
| $6.87 |
| Aug 11, 2025 |
| Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?No | buy | 6.67 | $0.750 | $5 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No | buy | 1.27 | $0.790 | $1 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 6.66 | $0.160 | $1.07 | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?No | buy | 2.25 | $0.890 | $2 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?No | buy | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1 | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?No | buy | 1.52 | $0.660 | $1 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Will anyone say "IMAX" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call?Yes | sell | 9.99 | $0.860 | $8.59 | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Loyalty" during the Q2 2025 AMC earnings call?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.780 | $7.8 | Aug 11, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?Yes | sell | 1.29 | $0.600 | $0.77 | Aug 10, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?Yes | buy | 1.04 | $0.960 | $1 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Aug 6, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?No | buy | 17.24 | $0.058 | $1 | Aug 6, 2025 |
| Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.190 | $1 | Aug 2, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by August 31?Yes | buy | 1.3 | $0.770 | $1 | Aug 2, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?Yes | sell | 3.38 | $0.800 | $2.7 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.966 | $1 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by July 31?No | buy | 2.04 | $0.982 | $2 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 31?Yes | sell | 3.44 | $0.970 | $3.34 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?No | sell | 4.54 | $0.942 | $4.28 | Jul 31, 2025 |
 Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?Yes | buy | 21.43 | $0.140 | $3 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes | buy | 14.71 | $0.340 | $5 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: JulyYes | buy | 1.02 | $0.979 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.920 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 1.45 | $0.690 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will anyone say "LinkedIn" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes | buy | 2.04 | $0.981 | $2 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will anyone say "Server" during the Q4 2025 Microsoft earnings call?Yes | buy | 2.06 | $0.972 | $2 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will anyone say "Project Kuiper" during the Q2 2025 Amazon earnings call?Yes | buy | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump pardon Diddy in 2025?No | buy | 1.16 | $0.864 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.79 | $0.560 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.02 | $0.982 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.17 | $0.460 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 2.08 | $0.480 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.946 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?No | buy | 1.02 | $0.982 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump attend UFC 319?No | buy | 2.99 | $0.670 | $2 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on August 1?Yes | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on July 31?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Harvard international students ban ended before August?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.940 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| 50% Brazil tariff in effect by August 1?No | buy | 4.55 | $0.220 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 25% South Korea tariff in effect by August 1?No | buy | 1.23 | $0.810 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 30% EU tariff in effect by August 1?No | buy | 1.01 | $0.995 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Trump x Xi Jinping talk before August?No | buy | 1.03 | $0.973 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.943 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by August 31?Yes | buy | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.943 | $1 | Jul 30, 2025 |
 Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?No | buy | 1.56 | $0.640 | $1 | Jul 17, 2025 |
 Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $1 | Jul 14, 2025 |