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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | No | 11.76 | $0.510 | $9.94 | +$3.94 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?Yes | buy | 3.46 | $0.442 | $1.53 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 |
| Yes |
| 10.13 |
| $0.770 |
| $9.07 |
| +$1.27 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 29.34 | $0.270 | $8.51 | +$0.59 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 14.76 | $0.550 | $8.34 | +$0.22 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | Yes | 13.72 | $0.500 | $7.61 | +$0.75 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 13.23 | $0.560 | $7.48 | +$0.07 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 14.03 | $0.570 | $7.09 | -$0.91 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 7.65 | $0.790 | $5.47 | -$0.57 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 8.13 | $0.610 | $5.33 | +$0.37 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.61 | $0.580 | $4.86 | -$0.13 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 7.37 | $0.430 | $3.72 | +$0.55 |
 Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? | Yes | 9.35 | $0.530 | $2.24 | -$2.71 |
 No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | Yes | 8.68 | $0.210 | $1.35 | -$0.48 |
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 8 | $0.210 | $1.16 | -$0.52 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 6 | $0.180 | $1.11 | +$0.03 |
 SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10 | $0.210 | $0.95 | -$1.15 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6 | $0.220 | $0.39 | -$0.93 |
 Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Yes | 10.25 | $0.240 | $0.33 | -$2.13 |
| buy |
| 3.05 |
| $0.390 |
| $1.19 |
| Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.4 | $0.350 | $2.59 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?Yes | buy | 10.25 | $0.240 | $2.46 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?No | buy | 6.48 | $0.250 | $1.62 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Yes | buy | 6.56 | $0.250 | $1.64 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will "World Cup" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?No | buy | 9 | $0.460 | $4.14 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Netflix (NFLX) Q2 operating margin 32%-34%?Yes | buy | 14 | $0.470 | $6.58 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.28 | $0.530 | $8.1 | Jul 7, 2026 |
 Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on July 7?Up | buy | 10.52 | $0.250 | $2.63 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.04 | $0.229 | $2.3 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of July 6 2026?No | buy | 15.29 | $0.520 | $7.95 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Yes | buy | 11 | $0.330 | $3.63 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 7.37 | $0.430 | $3.17 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?No | buy | 3.89 | $0.730 | $2.84 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?No | buy | 6 | $0.740 | $4.44 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026?No | buy | 3 | $0.650 | $1.95 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 8.13 | $0.610 | $4.96 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No | buy | 6.38 | $0.790 | $5.04 | Jun 18, 2026 |
 Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?No | buy | 6.07 | $0.880 | $5.34 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.370 | $2.59 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference?Yes | buy | 9.8 | $0.400 | $3.92 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?No | buy | 9.94 | $0.500 | $4.97 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference?No | buy | 8 | $0.600 | $4.8 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14No | buy | 10.14 | $0.700 | $7.1 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?No | buy | 8.13 | $0.600 | $4.88 | Jun 11, 2026 |
 Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.330 | $2.31 | Jun 1, 2026 |
 Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.220 | $2.2 | May 28, 2026 |
 WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28?Up | buy | 6.91 | $0.640 | $4.42 | May 28, 2026 |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on May 27?No | buy | 8.14 | $0.580 | $4.72 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 13.23 | $0.560 | $7.41 | May 27, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.180 | $1.08 | May 17, 2026 |
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.016 | $8 | May 17, 2026 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?No | buy | 6 | $0.740 | $4.44 | May 14, 2026 |
 Will EagleRock's market cap be between $2.0B and $2.5B at market close on IPO day?Yes | buy | 13 | $0.430 | $5.59 | May 13, 2026 |
 US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 8.61 | $0.770 | $6.63 | May 13, 2026 |
| Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?Yes | buy | 10.13 | $0.770 | $7.8 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 7.65 | $0.790 | $6.04 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.210 | $1.68 | May 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?No | buy | 10.23 | $0.790 | $8.08 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?No | buy | 14.76 | $0.550 | $8.12 | May 11, 2026 |
 Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.390 | $3.51 | May 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.21 | $0.302 | $2.48 | May 10, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 9.13 | $0.720 | $6.57 | May 10, 2026 |
 Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?No | buy | 1.34 | $0.740 | $0.99 | Apr 28, 2026 |
 Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes | buy | 10.44 | $0.670 | $6.99 | Apr 28, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.25 | $0.660 | $4.79 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?Yes | buy | 9.35 | $0.530 | $4.96 | Apr 27, 2026 |