Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 2.72 | $0.200 | $1.26 | +$0.72 |
 Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GTA 6 launch postponed again?Yes | sell | 4.7 | $0.230 | $1.08 | May 4, 2026 |
 |
| No |
| 0.95 |
| $0.200 |
| $0.92 |
| +$0.73 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 0.93 | $0.973 | $0.91 | +$0.01 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | 0.89 | $0.860 | $0.85 | +$0.08 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 0.77 | $0.677 | $0.65 | +$0.13 |
 NATO dissolves before 2027? | No | 0.65 | $0.946 | $0.64 | +$0.02 |
 Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 0.59 | $0.916 | $0.58 | +$0.04 |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 0.58 | $0.983 | $0.57 | +$0 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | 0.51 | $0.801 | $0.48 | +$0.07 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 0.53 | $0.666 | $0.46 | +$0.11 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | No | 0.46 | $0.774 | $0.43 | +$0.07 |
 Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.44 | $0.900 | $0.43 | +$0.03 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 0.43 | $0.926 | $0.42 | +$0.02 |
 Will Iran legalize gay marriage? | No | 0.37 | $0.977 | $0.36 | +$0 |
 Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | 0.37 | $0.853 | $0.35 | +$0.04 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | 0.41 | $0.379 | $0.34 | +$0.19 |
 Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | 0.3 | $0.930 | $0.29 | +$0.01 |
 Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | No | 0.27 | $0.922 | $0.27 | +$0.02 |
 US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | No | 0.28 | $0.860 | $0.27 | +$0.03 |
 Iran Nuke before 2027? | No | 0.27 | $0.900 | $0.26 | +$0.01 |
 Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 0.46 | $0.385 | $0.23 | +$0.05 |
 Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | 0.2 | $0.886 | $0.2 | +$0.02 |
 Will Elon register any party before 2027? | No | 0.18 | $0.879 | $0.17 | +$0.01 |
 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 0.84 | $0.083 | $0.16 | +$0.09 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 0.2 | $0.791 | $0.15 | -$0.01 |
| sell |
| 3.57 |
| $0.370 |
| $1.32 |
| May 4, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No | sell | 1.78 | $0.972 | $1.73 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes | sell | 4.68 | $0.340 | $1.59 | May 4, 2026 |
 Kash Patel out by December 31?Yes | sell | 3.03 | $0.630 | $1.91 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?No | sell | 2.26 | $0.942 | $2.13 | May 4, 2026 |
 SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?Yes | sell | 3.53 | $0.710 | $2.51 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?No | sell | 2.35 | $0.880 | $2.07 | May 4, 2026 |
 Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?Yes | sell | 4.87 | $0.440 | $2.14 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?No | sell | 2.72 | $0.997 | $2.71 | May 4, 2026 |
 Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 3.12 | $0.790 | $2.46 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump meet with Pope Leo XIV in 2026?No | sell | 4.11 | $0.650 | $2.67 | May 4, 2026 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?Yes | sell | 3.52 | $0.880 | $3.1 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes | sell | 3.34 | $0.996 | $3.33 | May 4, 2026 |
 Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?No | sell | 4.23 | $0.972 | $4.11 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?Yes | sell | 30.9 | $0.372 | $11.5 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Yes | sell | 27 | $0.003 | $0.08 | May 4, 2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes | sell | 49 | $0.003 | $0.15 | May 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?Yes | sell | 49 | $0.004 | $0.2 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?Yes | sell | 29 | $0.004 | $0.12 | May 4, 2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?Yes | sell | 19 | $0.018 | $0.34 | May 4, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Yes | sell | 13 | $0.038 | $0.49 | May 4, 2026 |
 Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.100 | $0.5 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2026?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.130 | $0.65 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 59 | $0.015 | $0.89 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?Yes | sell | 17 | $0.052 | $0.88 | May 4, 2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes | sell | 17 | $0.082 | $1.39 | May 4, 2026 |
 Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.150 | $1.5 | May 4, 2026 |
 US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.240 | $1.44 | May 4, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 18 | $0.083 | $1.49 | May 4, 2026 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31?Yes | sell | 12 | $0.160 | $1.92 | May 4, 2026 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.210 | $2.1 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 252 | $0.009 | $2.27 | May 4, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.100 | $2.1 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.110 | $2.2 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?Yes | sell | 19 | $0.130 | $2.47 | May 4, 2026 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Yes | sell | 62 | $0.040 | $2.48 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Yes | sell | 23 | $0.140 | $3.22 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.613 | $3.07 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?Yes | sell | 21 | $0.170 | $3.57 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 180 | $0.021 | $3.78 | May 4, 2026 |
| Will Elon register any party before 2027?No | sell | 5 | $0.850 | $4.25 | May 4, 2026 |
 Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?No | sell | 6 | $0.710 | $4.26 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Yes | sell | 80 | $0.060 | $4.8 | May 4, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Yes | sell | 63 | $0.080 | $5.04 | May 4, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?No | sell | 8 | $0.630 | $5.04 | May 4, 2026 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.056 | $5.6 | May 4, 2026 |
 Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?No | sell | 5 | $0.983 | $4.92 | May 4, 2026 |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?No | sell | 6 | $0.938 | $5.63 | May 4, 2026 |
 Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?No | sell | 7 | $0.830 | $5.81 | May 4, 2026 |