Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $98000 on May 2?Yes | buy | 11.25 | $0.280 | $3.15 | May 2, 2025 |
|
| buy |
| 31.95 |
| $0.031 |
| $1 |
| May 2, 2025 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 54.55 | $0.040 | $2.18 | May 2, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 3.03 | $0.650 | $1.97 | May 2, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 90.56 | $0.018 | $1.63 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.006 | $1 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 22.22 | $0.090 | $2 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.018 | $2 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 1 | $0.080 | $0.08 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 33.33 | $0.090 | $3 | Apr 18, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.006 | $1 | Apr 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?Yes | buy | 11.76 | $0.170 | $2 | Apr 2, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump sign 25-29 executive orders in March?Yes | buy | 454 | $0.003 | $1.36 | Mar 29, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?Yes | sell | 10.61 | $0.996 | $10.57 | Mar 29, 2025 |
 Will Elon say "Arson" during Baier interview on Thursday?Yes | buy | 7.14 | $0.140 | $1 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Elon say "Trump" 10+ times during Baier interview on Thursday?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.125 | $1 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 15.71 | $0.140 | $2.2 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 5.13 | $0.390 | $2 | Mar 26, 2025 |
 Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?Yes | sell | 15.94 | $0.260 | $4.14 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 720 | $0.002 | $1.5 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 86.67 | $0.012 | $1 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.002 | $1 | Mar 26, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign 20-24 executive orders in March?Yes | buy | 509.2 | $0.010 | $5 | Mar 26, 2025 |
 Georgescu banned from Romania election?No | buy | 37.04 | $0.027 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during his presser with Ireland PM?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Heritage" during his presser with Ireland PM?No | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
 Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?Yes | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?No | buy | 28.33 | $0.035 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?Yes | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | Mar 12, 2025 |
 Will Luisa González win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?No | buy | 5.56 | $0.360 | $2 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.320 | $4 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?Yes | buy | 13.33 | $0.150 | $2 | Mar 12, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?Yes | buy | 6.9 | $0.290 | $2 | Mar 12, 2025 |
 Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.023 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before June?Yes | buy | 6.85 | $0.146 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 US national Solana reserve in 2025?Yes | buy | 3.85 | $0.260 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Elon out of Trump administration before July?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.200 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Friday?Yes | buy | 142.86 | $0.007 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will Inuit Ataqatigiit win the most seats in the next Greenland parliamentary election?No | buy | 16.67 | $0.060 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will Trump eliminate H-1B visa in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 25.64 | $0.039 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will Trump privatize USPS in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 37.45 | $0.027 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?Yes | buy | 2.92 | $0.390 | $1.14 | Mar 8, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump sign 30 or more executive orders in March?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.390 | $3 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 29.76 | $0.084 | $2.5 | Mar 8, 2025 |
 Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?No | buy | 7.69 | $0.130 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?Yes | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 775-799 times March 7-14?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.016 | $1 | Mar 8, 2025 |