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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 311.62 | $0.022 | $7 | Jun 22, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 104.1 |
| $0.038 |
| $4 |
| Jun 21, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 103.97 | $0.038 | $4 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 320.69 | $0.037 | $12 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 1.09K | $0.023 | $25 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?Yes | buy | 166.9 | $0.030 | $5 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 228.61 | $0.087 | $20 | Jun 11, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 37.27 | $0.054 | $2 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 86.96 | $0.046 | $4 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 62.5 | $0.080 | $5 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.090 | $15 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 111.11 | $0.090 | $10 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.030 | $30 | May 27, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 27?Yes | buy | 341.84 | $0.029 | $10 | May 27, 2026 |
 US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?Yes | buy | 454.85 | $0.033 | $15 | May 27, 2026 |
 Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?No | buy | 212.77 | $0.047 | $10 | May 26, 2026 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.025 | $5 | May 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 1.03K | $0.025 | $26 | May 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 27.43 | $0.036 | $1 | May 26, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 28.57 | $0.035 | $1 | May 26, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.025 | $5 | May 25, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Yes | buy | 173 | $0.029 | $5 | May 25, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?Yes | buy | 256.41 | $0.039 | $10 | May 25, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No | sell | 100 | $0.960 | $96.04 | May 25, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 100.83 | $0.099 | $10 | May 25, 2026 |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?No | buy | 100 | $0.100 | $10 | May 24, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 13.51 | $0.074 | $1 | May 24, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 133.33 | $0.075 | $10 | May 24, 2026 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes | sell | 1.54K | $0.016 | $24.78 | May 23, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes | buy | 285.06 | $0.053 | $15 | May 22, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 413.04 | $0.073 | $30 | May 21, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 277.73 | $0.090 | $25 | May 21, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 253.16 | $0.079 | $20 | May 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 1.5K | $0.002 | $3 | May 21, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.150 | $25 | May 21, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes | buy | 383.57 | $0.065 | $25 | May 20, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes | buy | 540.98 | $0.061 | $33 | May 20, 2026 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.060 | $20 | May 19, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 375 | $0.080 | $30 | May 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Yes | buy | 652.17 | $0.046 | $30 | May 17, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 110 | $0.045 | $5 | May 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.025 | $5 | May 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?Yes | buy | 519.31 | $0.029 | $15 | May 16, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by May 31?Yes | sell | 312.5 | $0.060 | $18.75 | May 15, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes | sell | 2.05K | $0.016 | $32.74 | May 12, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes | buy | 166.67 | $0.090 | $15 | May 11, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes | buy | 150 | $0.100 | $15 | May 11, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes | buy | 258.33 | $0.120 | $31 | May 11, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Yes | buy | 192.31 | $0.130 | $25 | May 10, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?Yes | buy | 312.5 | $0.080 | $25 | May 10, 2026 |