Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | sell | 377.35 | $0.330 | $124.53 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 145.11 |
| $0.028 |
| $4 |
| Mar 31, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 115.38 | $0.026 | $3 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 229.12 | $0.436 | $100 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 171.53 | $0.583 | $100 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Yes | buy | 377.36 | $0.530 | $200 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?No | sell | 24.39 | $0.760 | $18.54 | Jan 17, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | sell | 857.14 | $0.250 | $214.29 | Jan 15, 2026 |
 Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?Yes | sell | 135.13 | $0.514 | $69.42 | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?Yes | buy | 1.36K | $0.220 | $300 | Jan 11, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?Yes | buy | 857.14 | $0.350 | $300 | Jan 10, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo | sell | 44.69 | $0.243 | $10.86 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | sell | 333.33 | $0.340 | $113.33 | Jan 7, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 315.92 | $0.200 | $63.18 | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 315.93 | $0.317 | $100 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: KhameneiNo | buy | 44.69 | $0.224 | $10 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?Yes | buy | 135.14 | $0.740 | $100 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in January 2026?Yes | buy | 83.33 | $0.012 | $1 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?No | buy | 24.39 | $0.820 | $20 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Xi Jinping out by June 30?Yes | buy | 43.48 | $0.023 | $1 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.300 | $100 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 71.42 | $0.447 | $31.9 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberYes | buy | 322.58 | $0.930 | $300 | Dec 28, 2025 |
 Epstein client list released in 2025?No | buy | 88.66 | $0.826 | $73.23 | Dec 26, 2025 |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 71.43 | $0.840 | $60 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | Dec 26, 2025 |
| Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31?Yes | buy | 23.26 | $0.430 | $10 | Dec 26, 2025 |
 Will Netanyahu meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?No | sell | 70.42 | $0.891 | $62.74 | Nov 24, 2025 |
 Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | sell | 43.01 | $0.945 | $40.64 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | sell | 23.52 | $0.920 | $21.64 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | sell | 28.98 | $0.610 | $17.68 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will no listed leader be out in 2025?Yes | sell | 35.43 | $0.750 | $26.57 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No | sell | 188.36 | $0.840 | $158.22 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Trump announce run for 3rd term?No | sell | 107.06 | $0.960 | $102.78 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No | sell | 59.68 | $0.820 | $48.94 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | sell | 108.6 | $0.972 | $105.6 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberYes | sell | 151.51 | $0.820 | $124.24 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 NATO x Russia military clash in 2025?No | sell | 221.05 | $0.950 | $210 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump visit China by March 31?No | sell | 113.63 | $0.920 | $104.54 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?No | sell | 112.35 | $0.940 | $105.61 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025?No | sell | 102.98 | $0.976 | $100.51 | Nov 16, 2025 |
 Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?No | sell | 103.73 | $0.976 | $101.24 | Nov 16, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: NovemberYes | buy | 151.52 | $0.660 | $100 | Nov 16, 2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025?No | sell | 131.16 | $0.860 | $112.8 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 108.6 | $0.967 | $105 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 28.99 | $0.690 | $20 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 43.01 | $0.930 | $40 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?No | buy | 23.53 | $0.850 | $20 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?Yes | buy | 6.67 | $0.150 | $1 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Will Netanyahu meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2025?No | buy | 70.42 | $0.710 | $50 | Nov 3, 2025 |