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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?Yes | buy | 53.75 | $0.750 | $40.31 | Nov 18, 2025 |
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| sell |
| 39.45 |
| $0.999 |
| $39.41 |
| Nov 18, 2025 |
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes | sell | 5.25 | $0.150 | $0.79 | Nov 18, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Yes | sell | 55.55 | $0.002 | $0.11 | Nov 15, 2025 |
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.310 | $1.63 | Nov 5, 2025 |
GPT ads by December 31?No | sell | 1.91 | $0.850 | $1.62 | Nov 5, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes | buy | 29.51 | $0.770 | $22.72 | Nov 5, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?Yes | buy | 55.56 | $0.090 | $5 | Nov 5, 2025 |
Grok 5 released by December 31?No | sell | 36 | $0.770 | $27.72 | Nov 5, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes | buy | 9.95 | $0.760 | $7.56 | Nov 5, 2025 |
Trump imposes tariff on pharmaceuticals by September 30?No | buy | 7.56 | $0.993 | $7.51 | Oct 1, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by September 30?No | buy | 7.51 | $0.997 | $7.49 | Sep 30, 2025 |
OpenAI social app in 2025?No | sell | 15.33 | $0.190 | $2.91 | Sep 30, 2025 |
GPT ads by December 31?No | buy | 1.91 | $0.780 | $1.49 | Aug 20, 2025 |
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?Yes | sell | 57.14 | $0.080 | $4.57 | Aug 20, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | sell | 24.83 | $0.060 | $1.49 | Aug 19, 2025 |
OpenAI social app in 2025?No | buy | 15.33 | $0.600 | $9.2 | Aug 9, 2025 |
Will the next MrBeast video be between 20 and 25 min?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.200 | $4 | Aug 9, 2025 |
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025?Yes | buy | 57.14 | $0.140 | $8 | Aug 9, 2025 |
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?Yes | sell | 35.22 | $0.602 | $21.2 | Aug 9, 2025 |
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Yes | buy | 24.83 | $0.305 | $7.57 | Aug 8, 2025 |
Grok 5 released by December 31?No | buy | 36 | $0.250 | $9 | Aug 8, 2025 |
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?Yes | sell | 47.61 | $0.022 | $1.05 | Aug 8, 2025 |
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 112.77 | $0.002 | $0.23 | Aug 8, 2025 |
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 20.92 | $0.180 | $3.77 | Aug 8, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?Yes | buy | 11.53 | $0.830 | $9.57 | Aug 6, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes | sell | 10.06 | $0.952 | $9.58 | Aug 6, 2025 |
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 20.93 | $0.690 | $14.44 | Aug 5, 2025 |
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 112.78 | $0.018 | $2 | Aug 5, 2025 |
Will ChatGPT reach 1b monthly active users in 2025?Yes | buy | 35.23 | $0.440 | $15.5 | Aug 4, 2025 |
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | sell | 30.4 | $0.510 | $15.5 | Aug 4, 2025 |
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Yes | buy | 16.43 | $0.816 | $13.41 | Aug 4, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Yes | sell | 148.99 | $0.090 | $13.41 | Aug 4, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Yes | buy | 141.3 | $0.100 | $14.13 | Aug 3, 2025 |
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Yes | sell | 18.96 | $0.745 | $14.13 | Aug 3, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?Yes | buy | 10.06 | $0.770 | $7.75 | Aug 2, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?Yes | buy | 7.69 | $0.130 | $1 | Aug 2, 2025 |
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?Yes | buy | 18.96 | $0.791 | $15 | Aug 2, 2025 |
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?Yes | buy | 30.4 | $0.493 | $15 | Aug 2, 2025 |
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.021 | $1 | Aug 2, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?Yes | sell | 7.37 | $0.035 | $0.26 | Jul 24, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?Yes | buy | 7.37 | $0.270 | $1.99 | Jul 1, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No | sell | 2.72 | $0.730 | $1.99 | Jul 1, 2025 |
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?No | buy | 2.73 | $0.770 | $2.1 | Jul 1, 2025 |
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | sell | 159.99 | $0.013 | $2.08 | Jun 25, 2025 |
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | sell | 105 | $0.052 | $5.46 | Jun 9, 2025 |
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?Yes | buy | 28.54 | $0.144 | $4.1 | May 22, 2025 |
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | sell | 31.5 | $0.130 | $4.1 | May 22, 2025 |
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?Yes | buy | 79.4 | $0.144 | $11.41 | May 12, 2025 |
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?Yes | sell | 25 | $0.170 | $4.25 | May 12, 2025 |