Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 15.46 | $0.990 | $15.3 | 9d ago |
 |
| buy |
| 15.3 |
| $0.930 |
| $14.23 |
| Jun 11, 2026 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Yes | buy | 14.15 | $0.940 | $13.3 | May 12, 2026 |
 Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?No | buy | 33.01 | $0.590 | $19.49 | Apr 8, 2026 |
 US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes | sell | 19.53 | $0.998 | $19.49 | Apr 8, 2026 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31?Yes | buy | 19.54 | $0.760 | $14.85 | Apr 3, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?No | buy | 15.95 | $0.940 | $14.99 | Mar 28, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No | sell | 7.09 | $0.992 | $7.03 | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No | buy | 16.12 | $0.963 | $15.52 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 15.52 | $0.940 | $14.59 | Feb 11, 2026 |
 Maduro out by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 16.66 | $0.930 | $15.49 | Jan 1, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | buy | 15.49 | $0.950 | $14.72 | Dec 6, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes | sell | 14.86 | $0.990 | $14.71 | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?Yes | buy | 14.86 | $0.950 | $14.12 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No | sell | 755 | $0.998 | $753.49 | Nov 8, 2025 |
 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7?Yes | buy | 357.9 | $0.996 | $356.47 | Nov 7, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No | sell | 359.71 | $0.991 | $356.47 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No | buy | 88.14 | $0.993 | $87.52 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?No | buy | 750.39 | $0.980 | $735.73 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?No | buy | 122.27 | $0.988 | $120.8 | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | sell | 1.12K | $0.978 | $1.1K | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | buy | 348.97 | $0.940 | $328.03 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 335.07 | $0.978 | $327.7 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | sell | 167.16 | $0.988 | $165.15 | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 167.16 | $0.989 | $165.32 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?No | buy | 10.9 | $0.987 | $10.76 | Nov 1, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?No | buy | 165.16 | $0.991 | $163.67 | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 14.76 | $0.974 | $14.38 | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on October 8?Yes | buy | 14.37 | $0.997 | $14.33 | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 4?Yes | buy | 14.34 | $0.999 | $14.32 | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 2?Yes | buy | 14.31 | $0.999 | $14.3 | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 2?Yes | sell | 14.4 | $0.993 | $14.3 | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on October 2?Yes | buy | 14.41 | $0.998 | $14.38 | Oct 1, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | buy | 3.67 | $0.749 | $2.75 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | sell | 10.54 | $0.250 | $2.64 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | buy | 10.54 | $0.554 | $5.84 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | sell | 22.06 | $0.270 | $5.96 | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | buy | 22.06 | $0.349 | $7.7 | Apr 3, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 300-324 times March 28 - April 4?Yes | buy | 51.28 | $0.039 | $2 | Apr 3, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes | sell | 26.74 | $0.363 | $9.7 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 26.74 | $0.463 | $12.37 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?No | sell | 11.74 | $0.971 | $11.4 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?Yes | sell | 35.63 | $0.027 | $0.97 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?No | buy | 11.75 | $0.974 | $11.44 | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28?Yes | buy | 35.63 | $0.112 | $4 | Mar 27, 2025 |