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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.7 | $0.840 | $7.44 | +$0.13 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?No | buy | 21.21 | $0.330 | $7 | Aug 3, 2026 |
 |
| No |
| 11.29 |
| $0.390 |
| $6.38 |
| +$1.98 |
 Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 12.28 | $0.570 | $6.2 | -$0.8 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | No | 13.46 | $0.480 | $5.86 | -$0.61 |
 US strike on Colombia by December 31? | No | 6.32 | $0.790 | $5.44 | +$0.44 |
 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 8.13 | $0.610 | $5.33 | +$0.37 |
 Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? | Yes | 7.6 | $0.770 | $4.56 | -$1.29 |
 Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 10.34 | $0.430 | $4.5 | +$0.05 |
 Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | No | 9.8 | $0.510 | $4.46 | -$0.54 |
 Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | No | 11.45 | $0.400 | $4.06 | -$0.52 |
 Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 8.15 | $0.550 | $4.03 | -$0.45 |
 Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | Yes | 9.09 | $0.240 | $2.64 | +$0.45 |
 Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.72 | $0.510 | $2.13 | -$4.87 |
 Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | Yes | 31.82 | $0.220 | $2.07 | -$4.93 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 13.04 | $0.540 | $1.89 | -$5.15 |
 Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | 6 | $0.210 | $1.71 | +$0.45 |
 Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | No | 6 | $0.230 | $1.65 | +$0.27 |
 Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? | Yes | 8.75 | $0.200 | $1.62 | -$0.13 |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 | Yes | 7.69 | $0.230 | $1.19 | -$0.58 |
 Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | No | 9.21 | $0.250 | $0.97 | -$1.34 |
 SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 7.04 | $0.300 | $0.67 | -$1.44 |
| buy |
| 3.25 |
| $0.440 |
| $1.43 |
| Jul 31, 2026 |
 Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?No | buy | 3.06 | $0.500 | $1.53 | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?Yes | buy | 3.99 | $0.499 | $1.99 | Jul 27, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 2.72 | $0.740 | $2.01 | Jul 25, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?No | buy | 7 | $0.330 | $2.31 | Jul 24, 2026 |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 28 | $0.250 | $7 | Jul 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?Yes | buy | 23.33 | $0.300 | $7 | Jul 23, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Transgender" during remarks in Georgia?No | buy | 10 | $0.340 | $3.4 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $610 Week of July 20 2026?No | buy | 2.03 | $0.760 | $1.54 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?No | buy | 3.96 | $0.500 | $1.98 | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No | buy | 6.57 | $0.752 | $4.94 | Jul 21, 2026 |
 Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $930 Week of July 20 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.490 | $4.41 | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.310 | $2.17 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.760 | $4.62 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 7.25 | $0.360 | $2.61 | Jul 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 18 to July 20, 2026?Yes | buy | 9.16 | $0.490 | $4.49 | Jul 17, 2026 |
 Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting?No | buy | 7 | $0.630 | $4.41 | Jul 16, 2026 |
 Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Yes | buy | 8.13 | $0.620 | $5.04 | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 16 to July 18, 2026?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.460 | $4.14 | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?No | buy | 8.15 | $0.610 | $4.97 | Jul 14, 2026 |
 Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of July 13 2026?No | buy | 12.21 | $0.560 | $6.84 | Jul 14, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 Week of July 13 2026?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.720 | $4.38 | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?No | buy | 7.5 | $0.380 | $2.85 | Jul 13, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jul 12, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.65 | $0.254 | $1.69 | Jul 12, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by August 31?No | buy | 6.08 | $0.800 | $4.86 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 31.82 | $0.220 | $7 | Jul 11, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?No | buy | 6.81 | $0.740 | $5.04 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $3.1B?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jul 10, 2026 |
 Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B?Yes | buy | 6.5 | $0.260 | $1.69 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?No | buy | 8.96 | $0.790 | $7.08 | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?No | buy | 7.11 | $0.660 | $4.69 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.06 | $0.427 | $3.44 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Yes | buy | 6.16 | $0.263 | $1.62 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?No | buy | 6.58 | $0.260 | $1.71 | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?No | buy | 10.15 | $0.680 | $6.9 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.25 Week of July 6 2026?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.560 | $7 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?Yes | buy | 7.32 | $0.317 | $2.32 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.710 | $5.04 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?Yes | buy | 12.21 | $0.560 | $6.84 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?No | buy | 6.81 | $0.740 | $5.04 | Jun 21, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?No | buy | 7.1 | $0.680 | $4.83 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?No | buy | 6.75 | $0.280 | $1.89 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.220 | $1.32 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.430 | $3.44 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference?No | buy | 9.44 | $0.250 | $2.36 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Yes | buy | 3 | $0.460 | $1.38 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No | buy | 8.15 | $0.550 | $4.48 | Jun 14, 2026 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Yes | buy | 8.13 | $0.610 | $4.96 | Jun 14, 2026 |