Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? | Yes | 730.26 | $0.733 | $697.4 | +$162.11 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31?Yes | buy | 460.81 | $0.210 | $96.77 | 25d ago |
|
| sell |
| 118.87 |
| $0.852 |
| $101.29 |
| 25d ago |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes | buy | 849.13 | $0.733 | $622.43 | May 21, 2026 |
 US recession in 2025?Yes | sell | 81.96 | $0.400 | $32.78 | May 23, 2025 |
 Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Yes | sell | 64.1 | $0.910 | $58.33 | May 23, 2025 |
| Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?Yes | buy | 64.1 | $0.780 | $50 | Apr 25, 2025 |
 Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?Yes | buy | 86.21 | $0.290 | $25 | Apr 25, 2025 |
| US recession in 2025?Yes | buy | 81.97 | $0.610 | $50 | Apr 11, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | sell | 47.61 | $0.320 | $15.24 | Apr 11, 2025 |
 Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | sell | 238.09 | $0.013 | $3.1 | Apr 11, 2025 |
 Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes | sell | 79.36 | $0.710 | $56.35 | Apr 5, 2025 |
 TikTok sale announced before May?No | sell | 58.82 | $0.840 | $49.41 | Apr 5, 2025 |
| TikTok sale announced before May?No | buy | 58.82 | $0.680 | $40 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 47.62 | $0.210 | $10 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30?Yes | buy | 238.1 | $0.042 | $10 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on March 31?Yes | buy | 109.79 | $0.455 | $50 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Yes | buy | 79.37 | $0.630 | $50 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No | sell | 13.69 | $0.440 | $6.02 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?Yes | sell | 22.72 | $0.457 | $10.37 | Mar 28, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Yes | sell | 32.25 | $0.004 | $0.13 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?Yes | sell | 63.45 | $0.740 | $46.95 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | sell | 68.95 | $0.550 | $37.92 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | sell | 74.62 | $0.610 | $45.52 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | sell | 131.47 | $0.920 | $120.95 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?No | sell | 201.66 | $0.910 | $183.51 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No | sell | 252.56 | $0.560 | $141.43 | Mar 28, 2025 |
 Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?No | sell | 131.6 | $0.718 | $94.48 | Mar 17, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 59.7 | $0.670 | $40 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 53.33 | $0.750 | $40 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?Yes | buy | 50.63 | $0.790 | $40 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | buy | 92.11 | $0.760 | $70 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?No | buy | 160 | $0.500 | $80 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No | buy | 159.55 | $0.439 | $70 | Mar 5, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes | sell | 41.56 | $0.421 | $17.51 | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No | buy | 44.44 | $0.450 | $20 | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?No | buy | 41.67 | $0.480 | $20 | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?No | buy | 111.11 | $0.090 | $10 | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | buy | 27.03 | $0.740 | $20 | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?Yes | buy | 41.56 | $0.241 | $10 | Mar 4, 2025 |
 Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?Yes | buy | 38.46 | $0.260 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?No | buy | 12.35 | $0.810 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
 Will Trump say 'AI' or 'artificial intelligence' during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 13.33 | $0.750 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.500 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?Yes | buy | 15.63 | $0.640 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Will no new pope be elected in 2025?No | buy | 13.7 | $0.730 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?No | buy | 20.49 | $0.488 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model in 2025?Yes | buy | 12.82 | $0.780 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?Yes | buy | 14.93 | $0.670 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Will OpenAI release an open source model before July?Yes | buy | 22.73 | $0.440 | $10 | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Will GPT-5 be released by June 30?No | buy | 48.57 | $0.412 | $20 | Mar 3, 2025 |