Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?No | sell | 4.66 | $0.880 | $4.1 | Mar 2, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 4.66 |
| $0.860 |
| $4.01 |
| Feb 17, 2026 |
 Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No | sell | 4.51 | $0.972 | $4.38 | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Opinion FDV above $2B one day after launch?No | buy | 4.51 | $0.940 | $4.24 | Feb 6, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No | buy | 6.02 | $0.910 | $5.48 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 US forces in Iran in 2025?No | buy | 3.57 | $0.997 | $3.56 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India"?No | buy | 1.92 | $0.999 | $1.92 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?No | buy | 6.35 | $0.960 | $6.1 | Dec 18, 2025 |
 Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 15?No | buy | 5.26 | $0.991 | $5.21 | Dec 15, 2025 |
 Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Yes | buy | 5.36 | $0.800 | $4.29 | Nov 27, 2025 |
 Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?Yes | buy | 4.63 | $0.993 | $4.6 | Oct 9, 2025 |
 Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?No | buy | 4.08 | $0.999 | $4.08 | Oct 6, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration by September 30?No | buy | 1.09 | $0.999 | $1.09 | Sep 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump sue Powell by September 30?No | buy | 3.24 | $0.996 | $3.23 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Yes | sell | 10.42 | $0.962 | $10.02 | Sep 10, 2025 |
 Jill Biden charged before September?No | buy | 9.87 | $0.998 | $9.85 | Aug 31, 2025 |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?Yes | buy | 10.43 | $0.959 | $10 | Aug 28, 2025 |
 Will Apple acquire Perplexity before September?No | buy | 3.65 | $0.995 | $3.63 | Aug 28, 2025 |
 Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet by August 23?No | buy | 10.61 | $0.999 | $10.6 | Aug 23, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet 300–324 times August 15–August 22?No | buy | 17.95 | $0.999 | $17.93 | Aug 22, 2025 |
 Trump x Zelenskyy meet on Monday?Yes | buy | 14.3 | $0.993 | $14.2 | Aug 17, 2025 |
 Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?Yes | buy | 11.68 | $0.999 | $11.67 | Aug 14, 2025 |
 Pakistan strike on India by Friday?No | buy | 20.96 | $0.999 | $20.94 | Aug 9, 2025 |
 Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?Yes | buy | 15.87 | $0.999 | $15.85 | Aug 7, 2025 |
 Harvard international students ban ended before August?No | buy | 2.67 | $0.997 | $2.66 | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?Yes | buy | 24.53 | $0.910 | $22.32 | Jul 27, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?No | buy | 35.09 | $0.999 | $35.05 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 5.31 | $0.998 | $5.3 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 30.15 | $0.998 | $30.09 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 9.5 | $0.997 | $9.47 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 5.52 | $0.994 | $5.49 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 13.35 | $0.993 | $13.26 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 9.78 | $0.992 | $9.7 | Jul 21, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 16.39 | $0.990 | $16.23 | Jul 20, 2025 |
 Will SP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?No | sell | 12.68 | $0.998 | $12.65 | Jul 19, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?No | buy | 11.32 | $0.997 | $11.29 | Jul 19, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?No | buy | 16.52 | $0.964 | $15.93 | Jul 18, 2025 |
| Will SP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?No | buy | 12.68 | $0.999 | $12.67 | Jul 17, 2025 |
 Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?No | buy | 29.83 | $0.993 | $29.62 | Jul 15, 2025 |
| Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?Yes | buy | 13.06 | $0.960 | $12.54 | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14?Yes | buy | 5.26 | $0.987 | $5.19 | Jul 13, 2025 |
| Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31?Yes | buy | 36.29 | $0.999 | $36.25 | Jul 12, 2025 |
 Will Elon call Trump a "pedophile" by Friday?No | buy | 24.54 | $0.999 | $24.52 | Jul 11, 2025 |
 Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | sell | 12.87 | $0.996 | $12.82 | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Will Elon call Trump a "pedophile" by Friday?No | buy | 18.98 | $0.999 | $18.96 | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?Yes | buy | 5.53 | $0.320 | $1.77 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Yes | buy | 12.05 | $0.998 | $12.03 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | buy | 7.55 | $0.996 | $7.52 | Jul 4, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting?No | buy | 5.32 | $0.996 | $5.3 | Jul 4, 2025 |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire before July?Yes | sell | 1.97 | $0.993 | $1.96 | Jun 27, 2025 |