Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
Polymarket returned no open positions for this wallet.
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Plovdiv 3: Nikita Mashtakov vs Juan Manuel La SernaNikita Mashtakov | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | 10d ago |
|
theprobablegame is a public Polymarket wallet indexed by Vultax, ranked #2,349,394 in the Observed 80K cohort. As of the latest observation the record shows -$42.53 observed lifetime PnL, 385 distinct markets, 50 resolved positions, a 70.0% win rate on resolved positions.
Rank, total PnL and observed volume come from one accepted snapshot of Polymarket's public leaderboard, so they are consistent with each other and with every other profile in the cohort. Open positions, the chart and recent trades are separate live observations with their own timestamps. A figure Vultax could not observe is left out rather than shown as zero, and nothing on this page is investment advice or a return forecast.
Public profile: polymarket.com/profile/0xd418b027de65b53079e9b151dc8edcc125ca0c39
Nine stops, one per figure. Each says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads for this wallet in the accepted snapshot.
Position in Vultax's Observed 80K cohort: 80,000 public Polymarket wallets ordered by observed lifetime profit in one accepted leaderboard snapshot. A rank is only comparable inside that snapshot.
Observed lifetime profit and loss for the wallet, realized and unrealized combined, as reported in the accepted snapshot. It is a record of what happened, not a forecast of what comes next.
| buy |
| 2.78 |
| $0.360 |
| $1 |
| 10d ago |
 M15 Madrid: Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez vs Alejandro Garcia CarbajalAlejandro Turriziani Alvarez | buy | 7.78 | $0.180 | $1.4 | 10d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Bernard Tomic vs Kasidit SamrejBernard Tomic | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | 10d ago |
| W15 Hurghada: Maria Herazo vs Mariia TkachevaMaria Herazo | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | 10d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Khumoun Sultanov vs Enzo AguiardEnzo Aguiard | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | 10d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Fajing Sun vs Hanyi LiuHanyi Liu | buy | 12.95 | $0.077 | $1 | 10d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Akira Santillan vs Ilya IvashkaAkira Santillan | buy | 7 | $0.143 | $1 | 10d ago |
| US Open ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Mariano NavoneMatteo Berrettini | buy | 2.7 | $0.370 | $1 | 10d ago |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel AltmaierDaniel Altmaier | buy | 37.04 | $0.027 | $1 | 11d ago |
| US Open ATP: Marcos Giron vs Ignacio BuseIgnacio Buse | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | 11d ago |
| Manacor: Daniil Glinka vs Daniel RinconDaniil Glinka | buy | 8.33 | $0.120 | $1 | 11d ago |
| US Open ATP: Jaume Munar vs Arthur RinderknechJaume Munar | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | 11d ago |
| US Open ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrey RublevAndrey Rublev | buy | 2.78 | $0.360 | $1 | 11d ago |
| US Open ATP: Brandon Nakashima vs Alex MichelsenBrandon Nakashima | buy | 27.03 | $0.037 | $1 | 11d ago |
| M15 Wuning: Stefan Vujic vs Zaharije-Zak TalicZaharije-Zak Talic | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | 11d ago |
| US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego | buy | 9.09 | $0.110 | $1 | 11d ago |
 Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes | buy | 545 | $0.006 | $3.27 | 12d ago |
 US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Alina KorneevaAlina Korneeva | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Plovdiv 3: Oleg Prihodko vs Maxim MrvaOleg Prihodko | buy | 3.48 | $0.287 | $1 | 12d ago |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli | buy | 1.72 | $0.580 | $1 | 12d ago |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio CobolliFlavio Cobolli | buy | 1.3 | $0.770 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Men's US Open?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Mitsuki Wei Kang LeongPetr Bar Biryukov | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Koki Matsuda vs Jake DelaneyJake Delaney | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Koki Matsuda vs Jake DelaneyJake Delaney | buy | 3.57 | $0.280 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Koki Matsuda vs Jake DelaneyKoki Matsuda | sell | 3.44 | $0.670 | $2.3 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Elias YmerElias Ymer | buy | 5.88 | $0.170 | $1 | 12d ago |
| US Open ATP: Martin Damm vs Frances TiafoeMartin Damm | buy | 11.11 | $0.090 | $1 | 12d ago |
| Zhangjiagang: Koki Matsuda vs Jake DelaneyKoki Matsuda | buy | 3.45 | $0.290 | $1 | 12d ago |
| US Open WTA: Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia ZakharovaAnastasia Zakharova | buy | 12.11 | $0.083 | $1 | 12d ago |
| US Open WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Taylor TownsendMaja Chwalinska | buy | 25 | $0.040 | $1 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Jacob FearnleyMartin Landaluce | buy | 3.33 | $0.300 | $1 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Otto Virtanen vs Andrey RublevOtto Virtanen | buy | 4.81 | $0.120 | $0.58 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur FilsArthur Fils | buy | 20 | $0.050 | $1 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur FilsStefanos Tsitsipas | sell | 18.75 | $0.962 | $18.04 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur FilsStefanos Tsitsipas | buy | 12.5 | $0.080 | $1 | 13d ago |
| US Open ATP: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Arthur FilsStefanos Tsitsipas | buy | 6.25 | $0.160 | $1 | 13d ago |
 Will FC Lorient win on 2026-08-29?Yes | buy | 8.26 | $0.121 | $1 | 15d ago |
 Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins | buy | 2.56 | $0.390 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 4.17 | $0.240 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 3.03 | $0.330 | $1 | 15d ago |
 Lions vs. ColtsColts | sell | 3.22 | $0.090 | $0.29 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 2.17 | $0.460 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 2.5 | $0.400 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | sell | 10.13 | $0.330 | $3.34 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 7.69 | $0.260 | $2 | 15d ago |
| Philadelphia: Katie Volynets vs Tereza ValentovaTereza Valentova | buy | 2.44 | $0.410 | $1 | 15d ago |
| Lions vs. ColtsColts | buy | 3.23 | $0.310 | $1 | 15d ago |
Lifetime dollar volume the wallet has traded in the same snapshot. Profit read next to volume shows how much return each traded dollar earned.
Value of the wallet's open positions at the profile observation, priced at current marks. Zero can mean the wallet holds nothing open, or that no open value was observed.
Share of resolved positions that closed in profit within the available sample. A high win rate with a small profit usually means many small wins and a few large losses.
Realized winning markets summed against realized losing markets. The split shows whether profit came from many small wins or from a few big calls.
Total losses as a share of total gains in the available sample. Lower means less of the profit was given back; a value above 100% means the wallet lost more than it won.
Distinct markets the wallet has traded, and how many of its positions have resolved. Breadth tells you whether a record is one lucky call or a habit.
How many provider fill rows this view loaded and when the snapshot was taken. Vultax stamps every figure with its observation time instead of presenting an old number as live.