Analytics
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Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | No | 12.18K | $0.811 | $10.42K | +$535.85 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.009 | $27 | 2d ago |
 |
| Yes |
| 7.34K |
| $0.536 |
| $3.63K |
| -$299.2 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 4K | $0.832 | $3.42K | +$90 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10K | $0.100 | $2.45K | +$1.45K |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 2.68K | $0.690 | $1.89K | +$40.27 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 7K | $0.451 | $1.43K | -$1.72K |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? | No | 1K | $0.505 | $815 | +$310 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 10.02K | $0.115 | $465.71 | -$685.04 |
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | Yes | 2K | $0.175 | $330 | -$19.99 |
 Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | No | 3K | $0.470 | $217.53 | -$1.19K |
 Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? | Yes | 2.02K | $0.212 | $100.84 | -$327.51 |
 Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | No | 125 | $0.600 | $89.38 | +$14.38 |
 Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | Yes | 2K | $0.050 | $77 | -$23 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | Yes | 500.02 | $0.200 | $72.5 | -$27.51 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 3.33K | $0.043 | $36.66 | -$106.65 |
 Natural Disaster in 2026? | Yes | 147.36 | $0.030 | $19.16 | +$14.74 |
 Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | Yes | 200 | $0.080 | $13 | -$3 |
| Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 479.99 | $0.272 | $7.92 | -$122.52 |
 Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | Yes | 4.62K | $0.005 | $6.94 | -$16.19 |
 Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | Yes | 4.49 | $0.510 | $3.52 | +$1.23 |
 Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? | Yes | 261.48 | $0.210 | $3.4 | -$51.51 |
 Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | Yes | 662.88 | $0.017 | $0.99 | -$10.26 |
 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | No | 0.28 | $0.884 | $0.05 | -$0.2 |
| buy |
| 105 |
| $0.770 |
| $80.85 |
| 2d ago |
| Will the AfD win the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election by 10-15%?No | buy | 43.2 | $0.880 | $38.02 | 2d ago |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 496.85 | $0.520 | $258.36 | 4d ago |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes | buy | 4.28K | $0.690 | $2.96K | 4d ago |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.190 | $570 | 6d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 1K | $0.830 | $830 | 22d ago |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No | buy | 2K | $0.830 | $1.66K | 28d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | buy | 5K | $0.470 | $2.35K | 28d ago |
| Fed rate hike in 2026?No | buy | 1K | $0.410 | $410 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will Warsh say "Dissent" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 8.24 | $0.210 | $1.73 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Will Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?Yes | buy | 747.34 | $0.990 | $739.87 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 Will three people dissent the July Fed decision?Yes | buy | 81.03 | $0.896 | $72.63 | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?No | buy | 897.59 | $0.838 | $752 | Jul 29, 2026 |
 Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in July?Yes | sell | 795.23 | $0.540 | $429.42 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?Yes | sell | 905.63 | $0.210 | $190.18 | Jul 22, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in July?Yes | buy | 587.47 | $0.200 | $117.49 | Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match?Yes | buy | 115 | $0.998 | $114.77 | Jul 19, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 5K | $0.062 | $311.36 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 5.15K | $0.064 | $329.59 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 10.15K | $0.163 | $1.66K | Jul 14, 2026 |
 Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 10K | $0.016 | $160 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 5K | $0.177 | $885 | Jul 11, 2026 |
 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?Yes | buy | 900 | $0.570 | $513 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | sell | 3K | $0.198 | $592.97 | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.160 | $480 | Jul 8, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Messi" or "Ronaldo" in July?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.990 | $990 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Messi" or "Ronaldo" in July?Yes | buy | 20.22 | $0.990 | $20.02 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Messi" or "Ronaldo" in July?Yes | buy | 73.94 | $0.990 | $73.2 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Ronaldo" this week?Yes | buy | 15.3 | $0.990 | $15.15 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Ronaldo" this week?Yes | buy | 123.9 | $0.990 | $122.66 | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Messi" this week?Yes | buy | 47.69 | $0.990 | $47.21 | Jul 6, 2026 |
 Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?Yes | buy | 224.72 | $0.890 | $200 | Jun 29, 2026 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Yes | buy | 3K | $0.170 | $510 | Jun 29, 2026 |
 Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.6K | $0.526 | $841.44 | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.9K | $0.075 | $141.6 | Jun 25, 2026 |
| Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.140 | $1.4 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes | buy | 10K | $0.060 | $600 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | sell | 2.5K | $0.880 | $2.2K | Jun 19, 2026 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes | sell | 53.43 | $0.143 | $7.64 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 2K | $0.278 | $556.33 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | buy | 775 | $0.400 | $310 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?Yes | buy | 603.09 | $0.276 | $166.63 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes | buy | 575 | $0.370 | $212.5 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Yes | sell | 800 | $0.837 | $669.72 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Yes | sell | 808.62 | $0.085 | $68.66 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Oil" during G7 events?Yes | buy | 64.93 | $0.967 | $62.76 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Eight War" or "Nine War" or "Ninth War" during G7 events?Yes | buy | 35.98 | $0.970 | $34.9 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "UFC" this week?Yes | buy | 39.94 | $0.953 | $38.08 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "World War" during G7 events?Yes | buy | 297.21 | $0.976 | $290.14 | Jun 16, 2026 |