Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | sell | 239 | $0.360 | $86.04 | Jun 25, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 231 |
| $0.360 |
| $83.16 |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?No | buy | 22 | $0.660 | $14.52 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 89 | $0.108 | $9.61 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 89 | $0.101 | $8.99 | Jun 23, 2026 |
 Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 192 | $0.940 | $180.48 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 173 | $0.940 | $162.62 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | sell | 12.23 | $0.480 | $5.87 | Jun 20, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 415 | $0.470 | $195.05 | Jun 20, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.270 | $2.7 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 131 | $0.270 | $35.37 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 469 | $0.270 | $126.63 | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 122 | $0.340 | $41.48 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 122 | $0.350 | $42.7 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 218 | $0.900 | $196.2 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 31 | $0.065 | $2.02 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 31 | $0.070 | $2.17 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 313 | $0.570 | $178.41 | Jun 14, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | sell | 517 | $0.065 | $33.61 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Yes | buy | 702 | $0.066 | $46.33 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 295 | $0.660 | $194.7 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 295 | $0.670 | $197.65 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | sell | 167 | $0.350 | $58.45 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 468 | $0.350 | $163.8 | Jun 12, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | sell | 52 | $0.028 | $1.46 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?Yes | buy | 684 | $0.034 | $23.26 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | sell | 225 | $0.720 | $162 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No | buy | 225 | $0.720 | $162 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 397 | $0.450 | $178.65 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 397 | $0.450 | $178.65 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes | buy | 102 | $0.023 | $2.35 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 162 | $0.011 | $1.78 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 184 | $0.978 | $179.95 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | sell | 177 | $0.012 | $2.12 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes | buy | 502 | $0.012 | $6.02 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | sell | 74 | $0.221 | $16.35 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 282 | $0.226 | $63.73 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Will Alberta join the US?No | buy | 197 | $0.957 | $188.53 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | sell | 190 | $0.988 | $187.72 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 190 | $0.988 | $187.72 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 147 | $0.390 | $57.33 | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Yes | buy | 324 | $0.267 | $86.51 | May 31, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 172 | $0.987 | $169.76 | May 31, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 8 | $0.530 | $4.24 | May 31, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 298 | $0.520 | $154.96 | May 31, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | sell | 286.91 | $0.500 | $143.46 | May 30, 2026 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 8 | $0.510 | $4.08 | May 30, 2026 |
 US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes | sell | 569 | $0.046 | $26.17 | May 30, 2026 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?Yes | buy | 569 | $0.046 | $26.17 | May 30, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 319 | $0.430 | $137.17 | May 29, 2026 |