Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.300 | $15 | Apr 11, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 173.91 |
| $0.115 |
| $20 |
| Mar 8, 2026 |
 Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes | buy | 21.46 | $0.466 | $10 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?Yes | sell | 149.25 | $0.048 | $7.15 | Jan 25, 2026 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?Yes | buy | 149.25 | $0.067 | $10 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by January 25, 2026?No | buy | 7.04 | $0.710 | $5 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?No | sell | 19.35 | $0.977 | $18.91 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Trump say "Denmark" or "Norway" during WEF Address on January 21?No | buy | 11.11 | $0.270 | $3 | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Will Trump say "Denmark" or "Norway" during WEF Address on January 21?No | buy | 12.5 | $0.240 | $3 | Jan 21, 2026 |
 Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?Yes | buy | 500 | $0.004 | $2 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?Yes | buy | 333.33 | $0.003 | $1 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 20?Up | buy | 8.33 | $0.240 | $2 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 30.3 | $0.220 | $6.67 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?No | buy | 35.71 | $0.280 | $10 | Jan 19, 2026 |
| Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?No | buy | 19.35 | $0.620 | $12 | Jan 19, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 15.79 | $0.190 | $3 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?Yes | buy | 10.53 | $0.190 | $2 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No | sell | 6.23 | $0.810 | $5.05 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?No | buy | 10.34 | $0.580 | $6 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No | buy | 4.92 | $0.610 | $3 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?No | buy | 1.32 | $0.610 | $0.81 | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 30.3 | $0.330 | $10 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 8.16 | $0.284 | $2.32 | Jan 3, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 8.16 | $0.490 | $4 | Jan 3, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 15 | $0.931 | $13.97 | Jan 3, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 5 | $0.800 | $4 | Jan 3, 2026 |
 Israel strike on Yemen by September 5?No | buy | 5 | $0.710 | $3.55 | Sep 1, 2025 |
 Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.100 | $1 | Aug 27, 2025 |
| Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.190 | $1.9 | Aug 26, 2025 |
 Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.330 | $3.3 | Aug 17, 2025 |
 Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.048 | $2.4 | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the September meeting?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.130 | $1.3 | Jul 28, 2025 |
 Japan prime minister Ishiba out by September 30?No | buy | 40 | $0.250 | $10 | Jul 23, 2025 |
 Yoon arrested by July 15?No | buy | 40 | $0.025 | $1 | Jul 9, 2025 |
 No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.950 | $4.75 | Jul 8, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?No | sell | 10 | $0.600 | $6 | Jul 7, 2025 |
 Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th?No | buy | 10 | $0.986 | $9.86 | Jul 7, 2025 |
 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?No | sell | 8 | $0.340 | $2.72 | Jul 7, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?No | buy | 10 | $0.170 | $1.7 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?No | buy | 20 | $0.200 | $4 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?No | buy | 10 | $0.370 | $3.7 | Jul 6, 2025 |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Monday?No | buy | 5 | $0.400 | $2 | Jul 6, 2025 |
 Will Trump declare war on Iran before August?No | buy | 5 | $0.973 | $4.87 | Jul 5, 2025 |
 Israeli ground operation against Fordow before August?No | buy | 10 | $0.970 | $9.7 | Jul 5, 2025 |
 Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?No | buy | 5 | $0.630 | $3.15 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| 10-year Treasury yield >4.3% Friday?No | buy | 8 | $0.250 | $2 | Jul 5, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?No | buy | 10 | $0.500 | $5 | Jul 5, 2025 |
 US recession in 2025?No | buy | 7.35 | $0.680 | $5 | Feb 28, 2025 |