Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 2 | $0.940 | $1.88 | Jun 26, 2026 |
 |
| sell |
| 15 |
| $0.340 |
| $5.1 |
| Jun 25, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes | buy | 15 | $0.350 | $5.25 | Jun 25, 2026 |
 China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | sell | 29 | $0.860 | $24.94 | Jun 24, 2026 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No | buy | 45 | $0.860 | $38.7 | Jun 24, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by June 30?No | buy | 39 | $0.967 | $37.71 | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 2 | $0.520 | $1.04 | Jun 22, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 44 | $0.890 | $39.16 | Jun 19, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 44 | $0.890 | $39.16 | Jun 19, 2026 |
 Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 17 | $0.955 | $16.24 | Jun 17, 2026 |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No | buy | 20 | $0.950 | $19 | Jun 17, 2026 |
 China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | sell | 39 | $0.900 | $35.1 | Jun 16, 2026 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?No | buy | 39 | $0.900 | $35.1 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | sell | 56 | $0.590 | $33.04 | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Yes | buy | 66 | $0.590 | $38.94 | Jun 15, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 49 | $0.800 | $39.2 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.490 | $19.6 | Jun 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 36 | $0.480 | $17.28 | Jun 13, 2026 |
 US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 38 | $0.941 | $35.76 | Jun 12, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Yes | buy | 81 | $0.270 | $21.87 | Jun 10, 2026 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes | buy | 68 | $0.390 | $26.52 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No | sell | 40 | $0.910 | $36.4 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No | buy | 2 | $0.910 | $1.82 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes | buy | 143 | $0.280 | $40.04 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No | sell | 3 | $0.790 | $2.37 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Will Alberta join the US?Yes | buy | 55 | $0.046 | $2.53 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 20 | $0.985 | $19.7 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 39 | $0.460 | $17.94 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 71 | $0.500 | $35.5 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 71 | $0.500 | $35.5 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No | buy | 31 | $0.790 | $24.49 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?Yes | buy | 7 | $0.190 | $1.33 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 42 | $0.480 | $20.16 | Jun 4, 2026 |
 Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 42 | $0.978 | $41.08 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No | buy | 22 | $0.790 | $17.38 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US?No | sell | 43 | $0.955 | $41.07 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will Alberta join the US?No | buy | 43 | $0.956 | $41.11 | Jun 3, 2026 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?No | buy | 39 | $0.973 | $37.95 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 42 | $0.986 | $41.41 | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?No | buy | 42 | $0.977 | $41.03 | May 31, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | sell | 39 | $0.969 | $37.79 | May 30, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No | buy | 18 | $0.964 | $17.35 | May 30, 2026 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 75 | $0.035 | $2.63 | May 29, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | sell | 49 | $0.856 | $41.94 | May 28, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?No | buy | 49 | $0.827 | $40.52 | May 28, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | buy | 22 | $0.590 | $12.98 | May 26, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.250 | $20 | May 24, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?No | sell | 33 | $0.969 | $31.98 | May 23, 2026 |
| Iran leadership change by May 31?No | buy | 40 | $0.976 | $39.04 | May 23, 2026 |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?No | buy | 37 | $0.963 | $35.63 | May 23, 2026 |