Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?No | sell | 17.64 | $0.774 | $13.65 | Apr 7, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 17.65 |
| $0.978 |
| $17.26 |
| Apr 6, 2026 |
 Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in March?No | buy | 26.94 | $0.965 | $26 | Mar 21, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?No | buy | 27.05 | $0.964 | $26.08 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | sell | 18.21 | $0.760 | $13.84 | Feb 27, 2026 |
 Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | sell | 12.57 | $0.890 | $11.19 | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 6.8 | $0.900 | $6.12 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.78 | $0.900 | $5.2 | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 18.22 | $0.870 | $15.85 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?No | sell | 10.27 | $0.985 | $10.12 | Feb 12, 2026 |
 Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?No | buy | 9.68 | $0.988 | $9.56 | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February?No | buy | 10.27 | $0.955 | $9.81 | Feb 6, 2026 |
 Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?No | buy | 9.39 | $0.770 | $7.23 | Jan 24, 2026 |
 Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?No | buy | 21.86 | $0.969 | $21.18 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No | buy | 18.84 | $0.966 | $18.2 | Jan 13, 2026 |
 Israel strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?No | buy | 6.11 | $0.978 | $5.98 | Jan 13, 2026 |
 Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 19.52 | $0.989 | $19.31 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2025?No | buy | 1.23 | $0.999 | $1.23 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | sell | 1.78 | $0.530 | $0.94 | Dec 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?Yes | buy | 3.42 | $0.900 | $3.08 | Dec 16, 2025 |
 Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?No | buy | 1.41 | $0.910 | $1.28 | Nov 27, 2025 |
 North Korea missile launch by November 30?No | buy | 3.51 | $0.940 | $3.3 | Nov 27, 2025 |
 Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 4.65 | $0.912 | $4.24 | Nov 24, 2025 |
 Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?Yes | buy | 3.65 | $0.930 | $3.39 | Nov 17, 2025 |
 Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?No | buy | 4.07 | $0.982 | $4 | Nov 10, 2025 |
 Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.841 | $1 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | buy | 1.23 | $0.840 | $1.03 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?No | buy | 1.59 | $0.850 | $1.35 | Oct 23, 2025 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?Yes | buy | 1.78 | $0.930 | $1.66 | Oct 22, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Yes | buy | 1.99 | $0.996 | $1.98 | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?Yes | buy | 2.61 | $0.996 | $2.6 | Oct 16, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer by October 10?No | buy | 3 | $0.999 | $3 | Oct 10, 2025 |
 Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?Yes | buy | 1.11 | $0.994 | $1.1 | Oct 9, 2025 |
 Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?No | buy | 3.26 | $0.999 | $3.26 | Oct 6, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?No | buy | 1.06 | $0.999 | $1.06 | Sep 30, 2025 |
 Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in September?No | buy | 1.65 | $0.999 | $1.65 | Sep 26, 2025 |
 Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31?No | buy | 3.85 | $0.997 | $3.84 | Aug 31, 2025 |
 Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?Yes | sell | 6.69 | $0.770 | $5.15 | Aug 31, 2025 |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 31?Yes | buy | 6.7 | $0.920 | $6.16 | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Will MrBeast raise $40M for clean water by August 22?No | buy | 7.93 | $0.999 | $7.92 | Aug 23, 2025 |
 Harvard international students ban ended before August?No | buy | 1.04 | $0.996 | $1.04 | Aug 1, 2025 |
 Biden diagnosed with prostate cancer while in office?No | buy | 1.78 | $0.999 | $1.78 | Aug 1, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?Yes | buy | 16.03 | $0.880 | $14.11 | Jul 27, 2025 |
 Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?No | buy | 12.09 | $0.999 | $12.08 | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?No | buy | 5.6 | $0.998 | $5.59 | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?Yes | buy | 6.28 | $0.996 | $6.25 | Jul 21, 2025 |
 Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?Yes | buy | 12.62 | $0.999 | $12.61 | Jul 20, 2025 |
 Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?No | buy | 13.3 | $0.975 | $12.97 | Jul 18, 2025 |
 Will SP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?No | sell | 12.91 | $0.998 | $12.88 | Jul 18, 2025 |
 U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Yes | buy | 5.07 | $0.999 | $5.06 | Jul 18, 2025 |