Analytics
Profile detail last fetched just now. Trade times and chart dates show when activity occurred.
| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | 186.28 | $0.815 | $161.13 | +$9.4 |
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This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | sell | 167.34 | $0.313 | $52.36 | 20d ago |
|
| No |
| 118.05 |
| $0.908 |
| $115.34 |
| +$8.13 |
 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? | No | 111.79 | $0.937 | $111.12 | +$6.41 |
 Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | 114.94 | $0.870 | $107.47 | +$7.47 |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | 115.64 | $0.792 | $98.87 | +$7.27 |
 Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? | No | 91.35 | $0.861 | $83.59 | +$4.91 |
 Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | No | 76.92 | $0.910 | $71.92 | +$1.92 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | 71.48 | $0.870 | $68.26 | +$6.08 |
 Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? | No | 77.65 | $0.764 | $61.73 | +$2.39 |
 Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | No | 51.82 | $0.957 | $50.08 | +$0.49 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? | No | 49.71 | $0.970 | $49.24 | +$1.02 |
 Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | 48.35 | $0.890 | $43.85 | +$0.82 |
 Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027? | No | 71.06 | $0.620 | $42.99 | -$1.07 |
 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 41.09 | $0.860 | $35.95 | +$0.62 |
 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | No | 32.89 | $0.746 | $27.79 | +$3.27 |
 Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? | No | 26.33 | $0.860 | $26.13 | +$3.49 |
 Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? | No | 20.94 | $0.667 | $15.81 | +$1.84 |
 Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30? | No | 15.39 | $0.920 | $15.06 | +$0.9 |
 Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | No | 20 | $0.670 | $13.5 | +$0.1 |
 Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? | No | 13.73 | $0.870 | $7.83 | -$4.12 |
 Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | No | 2.04 | $0.810 | $1.84 | +$0.18 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | No | 0.94 | $0.550 | $0.76 | +$0.24 |
 US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 0.76 | $0.670 | $0.66 | +$0.15 |
 Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026? | No | 0.49 | $0.910 | $0.48 | +$0.04 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 0.59 | $0.903 | $0.36 | -$0.18 |
| sell |
| 75.38 |
| $0.510 |
| $38.44 |
| 20d ago |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?No | buy | 57.89 | $0.890 | $51.52 | 25d ago |
 Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No | buy | 76.92 | $0.910 | $70 | 25d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No | buy | 93.18 | $0.550 | $51.25 | 25d ago |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No | sell | 10.01 | $0.996 | $9.97 | 26d ago |
 Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No | sell | 18.68 | $0.770 | $14.38 | 26d ago |
| Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No | sell | 35.08 | $0.710 | $24.91 | 26d ago |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No | buy | 10 | $0.870 | $8.7 | 27d ago |
| Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?No | buy | 5.64 | $0.610 | $3.44 | 27d ago |
| Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?No | buy | 5 | $0.530 | $2.65 | 27d ago |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No | sell | 8.73 | $0.963 | $8.41 | 27d ago |
 US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | sell | 23.83 | $0.750 | $17.87 | 28d ago |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 7.32 | $0.997 | $7.3 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 7.88 | $0.997 | $7.86 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 10.98 | $0.997 | $10.95 | 28d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | sell | 9.68 | $0.730 | $7.07 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 6.14 | $0.996 | $6.12 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 8.71 | $0.997 | $8.68 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 9.31 | $0.997 | $9.28 | 28d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | sell | 8.13 | $0.740 | $6.02 | 28d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | sell | 5.41 | $0.720 | $3.9 | 28d ago |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?No | buy | 24.81 | $0.690 | $17.12 | 28d ago |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No | sell | 5.89 | $0.961 | $5.66 | 28d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 6 | $0.984 | $5.9 | 28d ago |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No | sell | 6.48 | $0.962 | $6.23 | 28d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 10.19 | $0.920 | $9.37 | 29d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 8.88 | $0.900 | $7.99 | 29d ago |
| Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 10.62 | $0.870 | $9.24 | 29d ago |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.960 | $9.6 | 29d ago |
 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 41 | $0.870 | $35.67 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?No | buy | 14.23 | $0.880 | $12.52 | Aug 10, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 5.82 | $0.900 | $5.24 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30?No | sell | 13.41 | $0.870 | $11.67 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 76.09 | $0.906 | $68.94 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?No | buy | 72.92 | $0.960 | $70 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?No | buy | 72.92 | $0.960 | $70 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?No | buy | 29.93 | $0.920 | $27.54 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 5.09 | $0.890 | $4.53 | Aug 8, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | sell | 6.61 | $0.840 | $5.55 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?No | sell | 7 | $0.871 | $6.1 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?No | buy | 54.79 | $0.892 | $48.86 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?No | sell | 12.78 | $0.640 | $8.18 | Aug 7, 2026 |
 Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | sell | 36.61 | $0.980 | $35.88 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?Yes | buy | 26.94 | $0.790 | $21.28 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Yes | buy | 72.66 | $0.790 | $57.4 | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?No | buy | 18.61 | $0.580 | $10.79 | Aug 6, 2026 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | sell | 10.87 | $0.360 | $3.91 | Aug 5, 2026 |
 US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?Yes | buy | 20.03 | $0.700 | $14.02 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Yes | buy | 104.48 | $0.660 | $68.96 | Aug 4, 2026 |