Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?Yes | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 5.01 |
| $0.999 |
| $5 |
| May 20, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on IPO day?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.997 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 20?Yes | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 20, 2026 |
 Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.989 | $5 | May 9, 2026 |
 Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 9, 2026 |
 Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | May 9, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | May 9, 2026 |
 Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | sell | 5.03 | $0.993 | $4.99 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Apr 24, 2026 |
 Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No | sell | 5 | $0.996 | $4.98 | Apr 7, 2026 |
 Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Mar 26, 2026 |
 Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding on March 31?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Moonshot have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Mar 19, 2026 |
 Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Feb 24, 2026 |
 Will Frankenstein win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Sweden win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.994 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.07 | $0.987 | $5 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?No | buy | 10.01 | $0.999 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
 Will Seguro win Portugal's Overseas Vote?No | buy | 10.03 | $0.997 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
 Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No | buy | 10.11 | $0.989 | $10 | Feb 9, 2026 |
 Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes | sell | 5.04 | $0.984 | $4.96 | Feb 5, 2026 |
 Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No | sell | 5.03 | $0.911 | $4.58 | Feb 5, 2026 |
| Will Amazon reach $320 in February?No | buy | 5.03 | $0.994 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $50-$60 on the final day of trading of the week of Feb 2 – Feb 6?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of February 2 above $30?Yes | buy | 10.01 | $0.999 | $10 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes | buy | 5.05 | $0.991 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Once Upon a Farm IPO before 2027?Yes | buy | 5.04 | $0.993 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February?No | buy | 5.04 | $0.992 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No | buy | 5.07 | $0.987 | $5 | Feb 3, 2026 |
 Will Grok 4.20 be released before February 1, 2026?No | buy | 6.02 | $0.997 | $6 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.992 | $4.97 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.998 | $5 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 5.01 | $0.999 | $5 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No | sell | 5.05 | $0.983 | $4.96 | Jan 31, 2026 |
 Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No | sell | 5.01 | $0.987 | $4.94 | Jan 31, 2026 |
| Will Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?No | buy | 5.02 | $0.996 | $5 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?No | buy | 5.05 | $0.990 | $5 | Jan 30, 2026 |
 Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?No | buy | 5.06 | $0.988 | $5 | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 10.05 | $0.993 | $9.98 | Jan 30, 2026 |