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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 167 | $0.006 | $1 | Jan 6, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 50 |
| $0.020 |
| $1 |
| Sep 17, 2025 |
 Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.090 | $1.8 | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.060 | $1.2 | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 385–399 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 51 | $0.019 | $0.97 | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 370–384 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 334 | $0.003 | $1 | Sep 3, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 295–309 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 325–339 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 499.6 | $0.002 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
| Will Elon tweet 340–354 times August 29–September 5?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.004 | $1 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Yes | buy | 13 | $0.080 | $1.04 | Sep 2, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 91 | $0.012 | $1.09 | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?Yes | buy | 167 | $0.006 | $1 | Aug 17, 2025 |
 Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.005 | $1 | Aug 17, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 36 | $0.028 | $1.01 | Aug 16, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 22 | $0.046 | $1.01 | Aug 16, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?Yes | buy | 60.24 | $0.120 | $7.23 | Aug 15, 2025 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.020 | $1 | Aug 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump and Putin not meet?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.014 | $1.4 | Aug 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?Yes | buy | 250 | $0.004 | $1 | Aug 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Aug 13, 2025 |
 Will Trump and Putin meet next in Hungary?Yes | buy | 1K | $0.001 | $1 | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 9.99 | $0.028 | $0.28 | Jan 17, 2025 |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 15 | $0.026 | $0.39 | Jan 17, 2025 |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.038 | $0.19 | Jan 15, 2025 |
 Will Kanye West perform the star spangled banner at Trump's inauguration?Yes | sell | 18 | $0.002 | $0.04 | Jan 14, 2025 |
 Will Ritchie Torres win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?Yes | sell | 1 | $0.013 | $0.01 | Jan 12, 2025 |
 Israel x Egypt sever diplomatic relations before February?Yes | sell | 1.26 | $0.021 | $0.03 | Jan 10, 2025 |
 Trudeau out in 2025?No | sell | 19.98 | $0.008 | $0.16 | Jan 10, 2025 |
 Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.007 | $0.14 | Dec 11, 2024 |
| Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.009 | $0.08 | Dec 9, 2024 |
 Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.026 | $0.26 | Dec 5, 2024 |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.038 | $1.52 | Dec 4, 2024 |
 Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.092 | $1.84 | Nov 29, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.100 | $0.5 | Nov 27, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.090 | $0.9 | Nov 27, 2024 |
| Bitcoin above $100,000 on November 29?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.530 | $2.65 | Nov 22, 2024 |
 Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.067 | $0.67 | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Yes | buy | 23 | $0.067 | $1.54 | Nov 12, 2024 |
| Scholz out as chancellor of Germany in 2024?Yes | buy | 5 | $0.067 | $0.34 | Nov 12, 2024 |
 Who will win young men?Trump | buy | 5 | $0.410 | $2.05 | Nov 5, 2024 |
 Will a Republican win the popular vote and a Democrat win the Presidency?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.029 | $0.87 | Nov 2, 2024 |
 Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.140 | $1.4 | Nov 2, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?No | sell | 5 | $0.860 | $4.3 | Nov 2, 2024 |
| Will Trump say "god" 4 or more times during Wisconsin rally on Nov 1?No | buy | 5 | $0.948 | $4.74 | Nov 2, 2024 |
| Will the FED change rates to another level after Nov meeting?Yes | buy | 50 | $0.004 | $0.2 | Nov 1, 2024 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting?Yes | buy | 80 | $0.003 | $0.24 | Nov 1, 2024 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.029 | $0.87 | Nov 1, 2024 |
 COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.050 | $0.5 | Oct 30, 2024 |
 Will 2024 be the hottest year on record?No | buy | 10 | $0.052 | $0.52 | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Monkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.018 | $0.54 | Oct 30, 2024 |