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| Market | Outcome | Size | Avg price | Position value | PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | No | 20.11K | $0.988 | $19.89K | +$24.05 |
 |
This wallet's markets have not resolved into a category mix in the public profile data yet.
| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 2.17K | $0.992 | $2.16K | 20h ago |
 |
| No |
| 14.85K |
| $0.951 |
| $14.31K |
| +$181.96 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | No | 10.19K | $0.988 | $10.05K | -$21.95 |
 Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? | No | 9.26K | $0.986 | $9.23K | +$97.36 |
 Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 6K | $0.986 | $5.94K | +$27.37 |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5.77K | $0.993 | $5.74K | +$12.84 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | No | 4.71K | $0.962 | $4.59K | +$63.6 |
 Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? | No | 4.6K | $0.980 | $4.54K | +$35.48 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 4.64K | $0.983 | $4.53K | -$28.76 |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 9.11K | $0.520 | $4.15K | -$588.91 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | 5.58K | $0.693 | $3.77K | -$100.53 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 6.8K | $0.304 | $3.57K | +$1.5K |
 Iran leadership change by September 30? | No | 3.5K | $0.964 | $3.42K | +$45.5 |
 Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | 4.28K | $0.626 | $3.02K | +$336.83 |
 Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the September Meeting? | No | 2.3K | $0.962 | $2.24K | +$27.16 |
 Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting? | No | 2.15K | $0.906 | $2.08K | +$136.14 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | No | 2.02K | $0.932 | $1.91K | +$30.5 |
 Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? | No | 1.34K | $0.833 | $1.16K | +$42.72 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | No | 1.08K | $0.930 | $1.01K | +$5.38 |
| No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? | Yes | 960.54 | $0.911 | $924.04 | +$48.55 |
 Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026? | No | 578.85 | $0.950 | $575.09 | +$25.09 |
 Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? | No | 1.2K | $0.620 | $558 | -$186 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the September Meeting? | Yes | 784.35 | $0.677 | $549.05 | +$18.19 |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | No | 400 | $0.970 | $393 | +$5 |
 US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | No | 400 | $0.890 | $362 | +$6 |
| sell |
| 631 |
| $0.980 |
| $618.36 |
| 5d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?No | buy | 314.47 | $0.954 | $300 | 5d ago |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 51 | $0.984 | $50.18 | 7d ago |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 300 | $0.997 | $299.1 | 9d ago |
 Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?No | buy | 322 | $0.999 | $321.68 | 9d ago |
 Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 20 | $0.999 | $19.98 | 9d ago |
 Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 29 | $0.999 | $28.97 | 9d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 7 | $0.999 | $6.99 | 9d ago |
| Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 305.67 | $0.981 | $300 | 11d ago |
 Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 100 | $0.998 | $99.8 | 11d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 980 | $0.998 | $978.04 | 11d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 3.05K | $0.983 | $3K | 12d ago |
 NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 300 | $0.988 | $296.4 | 12d ago |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 400 | $0.988 | $395.2 | 12d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No | buy | 38.91 | $0.910 | $35.41 | 12d ago |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 40 | $0.140 | $5.6 | 12d ago |
| Iran leadership change by August 31?No | buy | 3K | $0.997 | $2.99K | 12d ago |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 14.25K | $0.998 | $14.22K | 12d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 50 | $0.995 | $49.75 | 15d ago |
| Iran leadership change by August 31?No | buy | 465.46 | $0.994 | $462.67 | 16d ago |
 Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 400 | $0.997 | $398.8 | 17d ago |
| Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 539.05 | $0.992 | $534.74 | 17d ago |
| Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?No | sell | 70 | $0.993 | $69.54 | 20d ago |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31?No | buy | 200 | $0.986 | $197.2 | 26d ago |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?No | buy | 49.99 | $0.952 | $47.59 | 26d ago |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Yes | sell | 1.28K | $0.403 | $514.39 | 26d ago |
 Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Yes | buy | 300 | $0.997 | $299.1 | 26d ago |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?Yes | buy | 100 | $0.996 | $99.6 | 26d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 1.2K | $0.986 | $1.18K | 26d ago |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 1K | $0.990 | $990 | 27d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?No | buy | 1.2K | $0.983 | $1.18K | 28d ago |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 10K | $0.990 | $9.9K | 28d ago |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?No | buy | 308.77 | $0.977 | $301.67 | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.75K | $0.989 | $1.73K | Aug 9, 2026 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?No | sell | 400 | $0.870 | $348 | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes | sell | 2.96K | $0.600 | $1.77K | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026?No | buy | 3.09K | $0.970 | $3K | Aug 4, 2026 |
 Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 20 | $0.230 | $4.6 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.230 | $2.3 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No | buy | 1K | $0.090 | $90 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026?No | buy | 578.85 | $0.950 | $550 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Lecornu out as French PM by August 31, 2026?No | buy | 61.52 | $0.975 | $60 | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 200 | $0.220 | $44 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | buy | 200 | $0.870 | $174 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.220 | $88 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | buy | 400 | $0.870 | $348 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15?No | buy | 400 | $0.870 | $348 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31?Yes | buy | 400 | $0.220 | $88 | Aug 2, 2026 |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Yes | buy | 35 | $0.460 | $16.1 | Aug 2, 2026 |