Analytics
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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?Yes | buy | 40.16 | $0.996 | $40 | 15d ago |
 |
| buy |
| 40.53 |
| $0.987 |
| $40 |
| Jul 20, 2026 |
 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?No | buy | 23.53 | $0.850 | $20 | Jul 20, 2026 |
 Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 14?No | buy | 20.02 | $0.999 | $20 | Jul 14, 2026 |
 US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 14, 2026?No | buy | 30.3 | $0.990 | $30 | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes | buy | 50.4 | $0.992 | $50 | Jun 28, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24?No | buy | 35.04 | $0.999 | $35 | May 24, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Yes | buy | 20.41 | $0.980 | $20 | May 24, 2026 |
 Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No | buy | 30.03 | $0.999 | $30 | May 10, 2026 |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?No | buy | 20.75 | $0.964 | $20 | May 10, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?No | buy | 27.25 | $0.997 | $27.17 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?No | buy | 20.45 | $0.978 | $20 | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes | buy | 10.42 | $0.960 | $10 | Apr 18, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 18?No | buy | 44.11 | $0.997 | $43.98 | Apr 18, 2026 |
 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?No | buy | 24.02 | $0.999 | $24 | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31?Yes | buy | 33.03 | $0.999 | $33 | Mar 31, 2026 |
 Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 17?Yes | buy | 36.81 | $0.998 | $36.74 | Mar 16, 2026 |
 Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | buy | 14.71 | $0.999 | $14.7 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No | buy | 22.02 | $0.999 | $22 | Feb 15, 2026 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 10?Yes | buy | 16.69 | $0.999 | $16.67 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?No | buy | 20.02 | $0.999 | $20 | Feb 10, 2026 |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?No | buy | 20.18 | $0.991 | $20 | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 20?Yes | buy | 36.65 | $0.999 | $36.61 | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?No | buy | 20.02 | $0.999 | $20 | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 6?Yes | buy | 48.08 | $0.999 | $48.03 | Jan 6, 2026 |
 Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?No | buy | 8.54 | $0.937 | $8 | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 30?Yes | buy | 27.56 | $0.999 | $27.53 | Dec 30, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | buy | 20.86 | $0.959 | $20 | Dec 30, 2025 |
 Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?No | buy | 4.62 | $0.650 | $3 | Dec 30, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 10?No | buy | 13.55 | $0.999 | $13.54 | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 9?Yes | buy | 13.54 | $0.999 | $13.53 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No | buy | 14.1 | $0.993 | $14 | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8?No | buy | 27.53 | $0.993 | $27.34 | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | sell | 27.36 | $0.999 | $27.33 | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?No | buy | 27.36 | $0.998 | $27.31 | Dec 3, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 2?No | buy | 14.3 | $0.999 | $14.29 | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 1?Yes | buy | 14.29 | $0.998 | $14.26 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?No | buy | 13.01 | $0.999 | $13 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 28?Yes | buy | 16.24 | $0.999 | $16.22 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?No | buy | 11.02 | $0.998 | $11 | Nov 28, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 26?Yes | buy | 27.22 | $0.999 | $27.19 | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 25?No | buy | 26.11 | $0.999 | $26.08 | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?Yes | buy | 1.08 | $0.922 | $1 | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 24?No | buy | 27.09 | $0.999 | $27.06 | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 12.64 | $0.550 | $6.95 | Nov 19, 2025 |
 Will Trump release the Epstein files by November 19?No | buy | 6.04 | $0.994 | $6 | Nov 19, 2025 |
 Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals?No | sell | 1 | $0.994 | $0.99 | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 17?No | buy | 11.95 | $0.999 | $11.94 | Nov 17, 2025 |
 Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?No | buy | 21.02 | $0.999 | $21 | Nov 17, 2025 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?No | buy | 12.92 | $0.990 | $12.79 | Nov 14, 2025 |