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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | sell | 250 | $0.500 | $125 | Apr 13, 2026 |
|
| buy |
| 288.29 |
| $0.690 |
| $198.92 |
| Apr 5, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 574.66 | $0.798 | $458.58 | Apr 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 105.68 | $0.686 | $72.47 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?Yes | buy | 169.15 | $0.650 | $110 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by April 30?Yes | buy | 143.33 | $0.630 | $90.3 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 45.65 | $0.650 | $29.67 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 12.5 | $0.630 | $7.88 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 171.5 | $0.640 | $109.76 | Mar 14, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?Yes | buy | 9 | $0.620 | $5.58 | Mar 14, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by March 31?Yes | buy | 217.52 | $0.216 | $47.01 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 117.96 | $0.398 | $47.01 | Mar 8, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?Yes | buy | 299.33 | $0.375 | $112.24 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?Yes | buy | 339.82 | $0.362 | $123 | Mar 7, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 187.1 | $0.620 | $116.03 | Mar 7, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 190.8 | $0.625 | $119.2 | Mar 7, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?Yes | buy | 622.39 | $0.643 | $400 | Mar 4, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?Yes | buy | 85.43 | $0.350 | $29.9 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?Yes | buy | 30 | $0.340 | $10.2 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?Yes | buy | 126.75 | $0.340 | $43.09 | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by March 31?Yes | buy | 50.91 | $0.330 | $16.8 | Mar 3, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?Yes | buy | 96.27 | $0.410 | $39.47 | Mar 1, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 117.96 | $0.540 | $63.7 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Yes | sell | 454.54 | $0.260 | $118.18 | Mar 1, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 122.02 | $0.410 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | sell | 192.3 | $0.220 | $42.31 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 106.16 | $0.471 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 172.19 | $0.581 | $100 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 169.78 | $0.589 | $100 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 123.37 | $0.405 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 123.67 | $0.404 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 130.86 | $0.382 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?No | buy | 192.31 | $0.260 | $50 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?No | buy | 287.61 | $0.539 | $155 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | sell | 331.32 | $0.466 | $154.33 | Feb 28, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?Yes | buy | 331.32 | $0.483 | $160 | Feb 28, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 427.81 | $0.655 | $280 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes | buy | 249.62 | $0.521 | $130 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?Yes | buy | 452.06 | $0.442 | $200 | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?Yes | buy | 454.55 | $0.220 | $100 | Feb 26, 2026 |
 Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 291.14 | $0.440 | $128.1 | Feb 2, 2026 |
 US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?Yes | buy | 136.36 | $0.220 | $30 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No | sell | 243.23 | $0.650 | $158.1 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?No | buy | 243.23 | $0.274 | $66.76 | Jan 14, 2026 |
 Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?Yes | sell | 375.86 | $0.090 | $33.83 | Jan 2, 2026 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?Yes | sell | 100 | $0.150 | $15 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?Yes | sell | 106.25 | $0.160 | $17 | Dec 31, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?Yes | buy | 1.12K | $0.722 | $810 | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Will Russia enter Toretske by January 15?Yes | buy | 582.11 | $0.258 | $150 | Dec 29, 2025 |
 Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Yes | sell | 83.23 | $0.671 | $55.83 | Dec 29, 2025 |