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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes | sell | 2.22 | $0.670 | $1.49 | Feb 21, 2026 |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes| sell |
| 1.26 |
| $0.840 |
| $1.06 |
| Feb 21, 2026 |
| US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?Yes | buy | 2.22 | $0.450 | $1 | Feb 15, 2026 |
 US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | sell | 3.79 | $0.998 | $3.78 | Feb 1, 2026 |
 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | sell | 1.4 | $0.730 | $1.02 | Jan 28, 2026 |
 Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.31 | $0.740 | $0.97 | Jan 28, 2026 |
| US government shutdown Saturday?Yes | buy | 3.8 | $0.790 | $3 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.75 | $0.560 | $0.98 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.75 | $0.570 | $1 | Jan 27, 2026 |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.32 | $0.760 | $1 | Jan 27, 2026 |
 Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?No | sell | 1.05 | $0.992 | $1.04 | Jan 25, 2026 |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | sell | 1.13 | $0.920 | $1.04 | Jan 18, 2026 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.952 | $1 | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?No | buy | 1.14 | $0.880 | $1 | Jan 8, 2026 |
 Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | sell | 1.17 | $0.934 | $1.09 | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?No | buy | 1.18 | $0.850 | $1 | Jan 4, 2026 |
 US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 1.49 | $0.999 | $1.49 | Jan 3, 2026 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | sell | 1.1 | $0.997 | $1.1 | Jan 3, 2026 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes | buy | 1.27 | $0.790 | $1 | Dec 24, 2025 |
 Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?Yes | buy | 1.13 | $0.886 | $1 | Dec 21, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | buy | 1.1 | $0.910 | $1 | Dec 21, 2025 |
 Maduro out in 2025?No | sell | 1.04 | $0.971 | $1.01 | Dec 20, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | sell | 1.16 | $0.880 | $1.02 | Dec 20, 2025 |
 Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberYes | sell | 1.17 | $0.890 | $1.04 | Dec 20, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?No | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | Dec 19, 2025 |
 Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?No | buy | 1.85 | $0.540 | $1 | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Nothing Ever Happens: DecemberYes | buy | 1.18 | $0.850 | $1 | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Maduro out in 2025?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.954 | $1 | Dec 17, 2025 |
 Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No | sell | 1.12 | $0.880 | $0.99 | Dec 6, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?No | buy | 1.16 | $0.860 | $1 | Dec 6, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by December 9?No | buy | 1.05 | $0.950 | $1 | Dec 6, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | sell | 1.12 | $0.930 | $1.04 | Dec 4, 2025 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 1.49 | $0.670 | $1 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?Yes | buy | 1.12 | $0.890 | $1 | Dec 1, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No | sell | 1.4 | $0.720 | $1.01 | Nov 24, 2025 |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | sell | 1.19 | $0.860 | $1.02 | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?No | buy | 1.19 | $0.840 | $1 | Nov 21, 2025 |
 Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?Yes | sell | 1.33 | $0.790 | $1.05 | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?Yes | buy | 1.33 | $0.750 | $1 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Rich country" or "Richest country" during Saudi PM events on November 18?Yes | buy | 1.59 | $0.630 | $1 | Nov 18, 2025 |
 Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM events on November 7?Yes | sell | 4.25 | $0.270 | $1.15 | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?No | sell | 1.66 | $0.290 | $0.48 | Nov 6, 2025 |
 Democratic sweep?Yes | sell | 1.14 | $0.999 | $1.14 | Nov 5, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Trump" during December press conference?No | buy | 1.13 | $0.889 | $1 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during December press conference?Yes | buy | 2.33 | $0.860 | $2 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 12+ times during Hungary PM events on November 7?Yes | buy | 4.26 | $0.470 | $2 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Layoffs" during December press conference?No | buy | 1.67 | $0.600 | $1 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Will Powell say "Dissenter" during December press conference?No | buy | 1.41 | $0.710 | $1 | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Democratic sweep?Yes | buy | 1.15 | $0.870 | $1 | Nov 3, 2025 |