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| Market | Side | Size | Price | Notional | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | sell | 12.98 | $0.987 | $12.81 | Jul 22, 2026 |
 |
| buy |
| 11.11 |
| $0.540 |
| $6 |
| Jul 4, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No | buy | 12.99 | $0.770 | $10 | Jul 4, 2026 |
 Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June?Yes | sell | 20 | $0.370 | $7.4 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes | sell | 50 | $0.190 | $9.5 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 49.99 | $0.200 | $10 | Jun 16, 2026 |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No | sell | 33.6 | $0.378 | $12.7 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?No | sell | 43.15 | $0.616 | $26.58 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026?No | buy | 43.15 | $0.562 | $24.24 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?No | buy | 33.6 | $0.378 | $12.7 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes | sell | 16.05 | $0.626 | $10.05 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?No | sell | 16.46 | $0.874 | $14.39 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Yes | sell | 19.12 | $0.573 | $10.95 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 26.05 | $0.436 | $11.35 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | sell | 34.44 | $0.400 | $13.78 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | sell | 46.43 | $0.390 | $18.11 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?No | sell | 60.64 | $0.260 | $15.77 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9?No | buy | 60.64 | $0.450 | $27.29 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 26.05 | $0.552 | $14.37 | Jun 9, 2026 |
 Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?No | sell | 17.6 | $0.540 | $9.5 | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?No | buy | 17.6 | $0.520 | $9.15 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?No | sell | 27.27 | $0.440 | $12 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes | buy | 34.44 | $0.430 | $14.81 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 17.91 | $0.560 | $10.03 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes | sell | 44.63 | $0.450 | $20.08 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | sell | 0.72 | $0.740 | $0.53 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes | buy | 18 | $0.410 | $7.38 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15?Yes | buy | 44.63 | $0.640 | $28.56 | Jun 8, 2026 |
 Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes | sell | 37.62 | $0.996 | $37.47 | Jun 8, 2026 |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8?Yes | buy | 6 | $0.710 | $4.26 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | sell | 18.46 | $0.820 | $15.14 | Jun 7, 2026 |
| Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May?No | sell | 19.35 | $0.540 | $10.45 | Jun 7, 2026 |
 Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | sell | 32.14 | $0.200 | $6.43 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | sell | 5 | $0.270 | $1.35 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?Yes | buy | 37.14 | $0.343 | $12.73 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?No | sell | 20.63 | $0.610 | $12.58 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings?No | buy | 20.63 | $0.620 | $12.79 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?Yes | buy | 19.12 | $0.670 | $12.81 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?Yes | buy | 16.05 | $0.800 | $12.84 | Jun 6, 2026 |
| Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June?No | buy | 9.5 | $0.779 | $7.4 | Jun 6, 2026 |
 Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No | sell | 54.55 | $0.170 | $9.27 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30?Yes | sell | 19.7 | $0.790 | $15.56 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30?Yes | buy | 19.7 | $0.650 | $12.81 | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No | sell | 30.3 | $0.830 | $25.15 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Yes | sell | 29.27 | $0.290 | $8.5 | Jun 5, 2026 |
 GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?Yes | sell | 19.67 | $0.280 | $5.51 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | buy | 10 | $0.420 | $4.2 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?Yes | buy | 29.27 | $0.398 | $11.66 | Jun 4, 2026 |
| Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Yes | sell | 10 | $0.265 | $2.65 | Jun 3, 2026 |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?Yes | buy | 18.46 | $0.640 | $11.81 | Jun 3, 2026 |